It was three years ago to the date that marked the epic debate between the “Domain King” Rick Schwartz and arguably the most successful domainer in history , Frank Schilling on the New gTLD’s.
The debate went on for almost 80 Minutes at a session held at the old TRAFFIC conference held back in October 2013 on basically “will the new gTLD’s be a game changer”.
So the question now becomes in retrospect was one side the clear winner or loser or is it too early to call?
As of today .Com has about 128 million registrations
All new gTLD’s have under 25 million domain registrations
Rick Schwartz opened the debate with this:
“.Com is the biggest franchise in the history of mankind.”
“Advertising for .com domain names in the billions of dollars a day, in every corner of the world.”
.Com will do more registrations than all the other new gTLD all together.”
.Com isn’t going anywhere the prices are only going to skyrocket”
Rick went on to say there is infinite inventory on existing strings .
Frank repeated his remark that .Com will be like AM radio in years to come that we first reported about in September 2013 and argued that Mr. Schwartz prediction didn’t see the future of domains.
Frank said the new G’s will allow you though his registry/registrar Uniregistry to buy a new gTLD active your email, put up a website and get online instantly.
Monte Cahn, Jeff Sass from .Club and Tim Johnson, CEO Of .Kiwi joined Frank Schilling on team Schilling.
Monte mentioned all the .Brand extensions to come, the 1 and 1 commercials that were running at the time to market the new G’s.
Monte went on to say “We are not even in the first inning and we are not going to be stuck on .com since there are a 1,000 new gTLD’s coming.”
This is the expansion of the internet not for those people in this room, it’s for the people who are not online yet
Lonnie Borck joined Rick Schwartz on team Schwartz, who bought and sold e.co at a profit buying it at $81K+ “never having heard of the extension before”.
Lonnie went on to say “I think there is going to be a lot of blood-letting”, I sure would not go out (as a registry) and go for 30 of them” There is so much inventory, it’s over development.
Tim Johnson from .Kiwi pointed out that in New Zealand .com is not trusted in his country but .nz the ccTLD (country code) is.
Tim said 600K .NZ domains are registered, and went on to project 120,000 .kiwi domain names would be registered (20% of .nz domains) in the first year
Mr. Schilling said the price point of .kiwi at $35 was too high and would have to be around $8 to be competitive and would have trouble getting to 60K registrations at $8.
As of publication there are only 10,554 registered .kiwi domain names
Monte went on to defend .irish pointing out there are 110 million Irish people in the world.
However as of today there are only 2,140 .Irish domains or about several hundreds of a faction of all Irish people.
Mr. Schilling went on to argue against Geo or community new gTLD popularity.
Anyway it is a epic throw-down and must see .TV for those in the domain name space.
You can watch the 1st part of the debate here and the 2nd part of the debate here and make your call who was right 3 years ago.
Surely the argument is over and it’s all down hill from here for the nGTLDs
What a fantastic exchange. Watched and listened with great interest. Must confess to being at a disadvantage in that my understanding of the domain business is still relatively fledgling. Some of Mr. Schwartz’s imparted knowledge of the .com extension and it’s value is still beyond my grasp.
I liked Monte Cahn’s point about future generations perceptions and the open mindedness projection that just as in our day .com is virtually all that we know, in the future all future generations will know will be the landscape with 1000 or so new gtlds.
I have sold 3 .berlin and 1 .xyz names $8750, $1250, $360 & $1000 respectively.
Nothing to write home about.
Conversely, being pitted against the likes of Michael Berkens, Frank Schilling, Monte Cahn, Mike Mann, and all the brokers working with and for them, leaves me at such a disadvantage with my .Coms that survival new gtlds or no new gtlds, looks to be simply a war of attrition.
If you can survive long enough, given some luck and smart retention of salable .coms and I guess the proper expression of subordination to the sharks in the business, maybe… just maybe there is a chance that, in a lotteries chance in hell, you might sell a name for 1000 times reg fee…. maybe.
lol The domain business….!! lol
Robert McLean
.com wins it hands down, gtld’s are being given away, and I am fighting ‘taryn’ aka Frank S on namejet for good .com domain names, hence AM dial, slightly conflicted, even the naysayers have been turned into believers!
Few days ago I rejected the offer of 2000$ for my domain name “howtoget.money” and buyer bought .com for 2100$ 🙂 This sale in today’s SEDO weekly sales report.
new gTLD – win!
My position has always been that New TLDs is a long term play….at least as long as we have been online with .coms thus far. Some will be much better than others and many will be successful. Not like .Com, Number of registrations is/will not always the determinate factors of success and will not be the measure in many new TLD extensions.
I also stated and continue to state that the introduction, marketing, and education of new TLDs will benefit the entire domain industry and raise the tide water for all. That is actually what is happening now as new TLDs are are being registered in the millions and not taking market share away from .com. That may not be the case in 10 years from now. The aftermarket in .com continues to be strong. The aftermarket in new TLDs is not based on the same factors such as natural type in traffic that generates parking revenue.
Our RightOfTheDot domain auctions at NamesCon this year and this coming will show strong performance for both legacy TLDs and new TLDs as we have a new domain investor community as well as the well established domain investors looking for appreciation of value and diversification of their investment using some different valuation factors.
Exciting times to come in the next 5-10 years for sure!
Good and meaningful dot coms have value, while the bad ones have no value… Good and meaningful New G’s have value, while the bad New G’s have no value…..Having said that, I can argue they are both correct and wrong.
How can they have value, when their value is priced at a premium what is really the purpose, they are not a domainer investment.
Do Lamborghinis not have value, either?
Even more now they have their own .LAMBORGHINI new gTLD: http://nic.lamborghini/
I think when google and amazon joins the battle there will be an uptick in the ntlds. I think .com is the sure winner however we are still in the early stages.
A lot of the new tlds will dye on the vine and there will be just a very few winners. .app and .web will survive
As someone who was no fan of the gTLDs from the outset, I would have to agree with @Aaron’s take – lousy dot-COMs are worthless, and (high) quality gTLDs will have value – in some cases enormous value – to end users. But because domainers tend to be short-sighted in their ROI time frames, most will conclude that gTLDs are a universal failure.
But to write-off the ‘whole’ gTLD program at this stage, and every one of the extension, is not only premature, it’s foolish. End-users are the ones who will ultimately decide, but, to date, very few of the 7 billion people on this planet are even aware of most of them.
Clearly the registries are the winer so far.
It is to early to tell who was right.
Give it another 3 years by then we will know.
As it stands right now Rick might of been right.
.US is also the winner now because the ICANN “transition” changes everything about the status of .com, net, org, etc.
A relative few keywords in a few new TLDs are strong, in some more and some less; .com is clearly still on top of them. As with almost everything, there are diamonds, gold, silver and gems, and wood, hay, mud and straw.
When the original live session took place and Rick was being challenged, it felt like Rick was winning although it was 4 against two. Rick had been at least 10 years ahead of almost all domainers on visionary terms and sales. He gave the new gtld’s some credit, and even purchased a few hundred, but remained strong on his defense of the dot.com. I thought at the time, why would the most recognized extension, with almost twenty years of growth, give way to untried new gtld’s? For sure, three years is not a good scientific trial period, but let’s visit this example in 2020, and then we’ll all know the answer! I respect both Frank and Rick, two revolutionary figures.
Lacking any type-in traffic the New TLDs have to in big part depend on traffic generated through search engines and thus the success of the New TLDs totally depends on whether major search engines such as goggle decide to artificially suppress them or not. We have to wait and see whether or not google is going to allow the New TLDs to get any exposure on the first couple of pages of search results once there are more and more websites using the New TLDS.
Although it could be cause for concern for all New TLDs when considering that .US has been open to the public for almost 15 years now but you hardly get to see any .US websites on the first few pages of google even though when searching for Site:.US you find thousands and thousands of people and businesses using this extension for their websites. (just an observation)
Good new gTLDs receive type-in traffic. If the SLD and TLD when combined form a heavily searched for term (a term not more than two words) then type-in traffic is received. My best new gTLDs receive type-in traffic in the thousands of visitors each month.
Ha! On what planet?
Every .dog has one day
its T20 match between legacy C and new D will know who is the winner in 2020
My take on it, long play for domainers argument can be made. For rar’s a now play, so there is at least one winner. Do I think long play will pay off for domainers, no not one bit, over all failure but who cares the rar’s don’t they made their money now, in and out was never about replacing dot com. It’s always about the money and only the money. We are not dealing with the invention of the web here.
It was a simple business plan….
Offer new extensions
Enough speculation purchases combined with fear purchases by end users for brand protection and handful of end users who couldn’t buy the dot com and bingo bango, cash machine for X years then dump…NEXT!
After all when people tell you or your business you need this new thing like an iphone7 you just have to buy it.
Just like the .COM industry boom, everything takes time and it is inevitable that the New G’s make a mark.
_ Change is the only constant.
Very true Rohit. I already have made a $2k sale with an outbound email activity. With a creative mind, there are huge (maybe lesser value) opportunities, but opportunities nonetheless.
Always keep Henry Ford in mind!!
You have to be ultra skilled, well capitalized and incredibly innovative to make a fortune with the gTLD’s since these are digital assets that come with no inherent value attributes like the traffic and public awareness .com’s provide.
After initially having doubts when they first came out, I’ve done a year of observation, market analysis studying , and many months of brainstorming ideas, and decided there is indeed a genuine and strong opportunity to make a lot of money with the gTLDs, so I’m investing in a carefully selected one.
I’m the kind of adventurous entrepreneur that enjoys the thrill and challenge of seeing a mountain ahead to climb before achieving success and no doubt that is what the gTLD’s present.
See you at the top!
Nicely – and accurately – said, Kevin.
Thank you Paul!
People like Schilling that say it’s a long term play are full of it. They just want to trick domainers into wasting their money for 10 years, so they can collect money for 10 years and get out themselves. They made all their money on dot coms, and are still sitting on their dot coms since they know that’s their real long term investment. They are trying to get some fast money off the new gTLD’s by marketing to domainers as a long term investment.
proof of them knowing it’s not a long term investment is right in the stocks. Schilling is selling tons of his Rightside shares and Negari sold ALL his Rightside shares. The jig is up.
Bull’s Eye!
.com is the AM … the PM … and the XM of extensions.
Was so 3 years ago. Is still today. Will be tomorrow … and forever.
Rick was — and remains — right.
Like it or not.
It’s all in the name. The new gtld’s allow brevity. Before the sellers caught on, some people were even registering ONE letter prefixes to gTlds. I myself own about 10 TWO letter prefixes to some good TLDs. It all depends on the TLD, but the bottom line is that if a name is good and easy to remember, then it wins.
Of course .com is the premier domain for now and maybe forever, but so what? People can’t get good .coms any more unless they troll for ones that come back on the market when abandoned. Branding and investment in a business is ultimately is what makes a domain name the most valuable. If someone makes emoji.earth or robot.earth great businesses, then the domains will be valuable. Either way, a great name can offer the basis for a great business, or merely another input for a business that wants more routes in.
It was reported last night that my debate partner, Lonnie Borck, seated to the right of me, passed away yesterday of a massive hear attack at jusr 47. I am truly saddened by this loss. Lonnie was a good and trusted friend. Smart, sharp, funny and a giant spirit and heart.
What many don’t know in the Schwartz VS Schilling is that the other side had 4 debaters while our side had 2. Just Lonnie and me. Why? He was the only one that agreed to join me on stage in this epic battle.
Hope you watch. He was great and his words have much validity whether you are a domainer or just a businessman. For those still looking for success, I suggest you listen and pay attention to guys like Lonnie.
RIP Lonnie. You were one of the really good guys I have met in life.
Lonnie was one of those very special one of a kind souls you meet in life that you will never forget and forever deeply miss.
Rest In Peace Lonnie
Kevin
his advises and visionary give me so much help when I still new to domaining..
rest in peace Lonnie.
@Rick: Just learned of Lonnie, myself. So sorry to read about that. 🙁
As for the debate, it’s hard to believe that it’s been three years, already. The gTLD space does seem to be struggling, and I admit I was on the fence on the gTLD namespace, early on. I did buy a few, but I still own only a couple, at this juncture, and those are defensive only.
For domain investors, of which I am not a thoroughbred, playing the long game is likely going to be the only way to get any reasonable return on investment. I don’t believe gTLDs have broad development appeal, primarily because the trust in most extensions has already taken a beating by spammers. Development would be folly, at least at this early stage.
I did, recently, notice a number of super-premium, single-word geo gTLD’s available at Namejet, which surprised me. They were all .NYC names. I found this interesting.
As for who won the debate; I believe it was a draw, but as for who is correct, I believe Lonnie and Rick were speaking more as investors, while the other folks were approaching the issue from the angle of purveyors of the new extensions. In other words – and I like Frank and Monte – they had something to gain by casting the gTLDs in a better light.
As for me, I’ve been paring my ‘folio for the past 18 months, as it is. I’m heavily weighted on .com, as I see absolutely no reason to think its value will go anywhere but up. Even AM radio recovered well enough, after the initial disruptions by FM, and no gTLD has really disrupted .com in such a way.