We started a poll two months ago that asked, “How Many New gTLD Registrations Will There Be By The End of 2015?” Currently there are over 5 million new gtld registrations according to multiple sources such as ntldstats.com.
The majority of respondents see the numbers going down. 27% of readers who participated see 2015 ending with 2 million or less registrations. Thanks for voting and here are the results:
- 2 million or less (27%, 93 Votes)
- 8,000,000-10 Million (13%, 45 Votes)
- Over 20 Million (13%, 43 Votes)
- 6,000,000 – 7,999,999 (10%, 33 Votes)
- 5,000,000 – 5,999,999 (9%, 31 Votes)
- 4,000,000 – 4,999,999 (7%, 25 Votes)
- 10 Million -15 Million (6%, 21 Votes)
- 3,000,000 – 3,999,999 (5%, 18 Votes)
- 2,000,001 – 2,499,000 (4%, 15 Votes)
- 2,500,000 – 2,999,999 (4%, 12 Votes)
- 15 Million- 20 Million (2%, 6 Votes)
Total Voters: 342
You don’t have to wait till the end of 2015, every second there are 1000 drop in the new GTLDs
sournote.com is taken
Hello Ray,
We already have submitted a draft of a Book about this whole new Quasi- Derivative Fiasco.
Everything thats already public will be VERY PUBLIC Soon.
We have no doubt that this multi-Billion $ Assault on the Domain Name Systems Hierarcy, by( GOOGLE The Ring Leader ) and the supporting actors to this Anti-Competitive Assault on the worlds Small and large Businesses ability to enter the online business endeavor. Assaulting the very Fabric of the DNSs Nuetrality will not br pretty for some. If you choose to block this and more coming Comments, we can only warn you this is a very BAD DECISION. JAS 4/26/15
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) (Former Rockefeller Marketing Analyst/Strategist)
You’re an idiot Jeff, congratulations on your constant trolling though, I guess it gives you something to play with at least.
Gtlds are dumb. I would have voted for a less successful option had it been offered. I think all gtlds .bite and all will .fail .bigtime in 2015
The statement “The majority of respondents see the numbers going down” doesn’t add up.
If the current level is around 5 million, there’s a total of 47% who think it will go below that, 44% who estimate above 6 million and 9% in the 5-6 million category (which you could spin as either an increase or staying the same).
2 million or less (27%, 93 Votes)
2,000,001 – 2,499,000 (4%, 15 Votes)
2,500,000 – 2,999,999 (4%, 12 Votes)
3,000,000 – 3,999,999 (5%, 18 Votes)
4,000,000 – 4,999,999 (7%, 25 Votes)
Total 47%
6,000,000 – 7,999,999 (10%, 33 Votes)
8,000,000-10 Million (13%, 45 Votes)
10 Million -15 Million (6%, 21 Votes)
15 Million- 20 Million (2%, 6 Votes)
Over 20 Million (13%, 43 Votes)
Total 44%
5,000,000 – 5,999,999 (9%, 31 Votes)
@ Gary:
The thing is there are probably close to 2 million free and or gtld sponsor registrations of which many will end up not getting renewed sometime this year. Of the three million registrations that closed out 2014 probably 1/2- 2/3 of them were in this category. ICANN predicted 33 million regs, downgraded that to 15 mill in Oct 2014 and the reality was 3 mill. Their projections off by more than 90%. As you can see the whole idea was really well founded (NOT)
Some of the gtlds also sold at low low prices (more than likely to spammers) and will eventually suffer the same fate as the .Info fiasco.
The mathmatics of introducing close to 2k in new extensions (side from consumer confusion) simply don’t compute & never have. The market simply isn’t large enough to absorb them all. It will be responsible for one the biggest fiascos the internet has ever seen once these extensions start to fail and the people that paid cold hard cash to develop their websites start screaming when they have to start over!
The existing registries, particularily the .com will have a huge fall off in renewals. Why, because Icann has cheapened the perception of domains and so much of our industry is built on speculation. 90% of the domains I see offered for sale wouldn’t pass the “why the hell did you buy that” test. How many of those will get abandoned once the speculators realize they will never sell them in the face of so much competition.
Icann has basically walked away with hundreds of millions of dollars while knocking the props out of the market that so many of us have laboured to build. With all due respect to Frank’s opinion below I think the worst is yet to come.
Hello Gordon,
We mostly agree with you accepting your read on Legacy .COM Extensions which will spiral upwards for the next 30 years. As far as ICANN :
We all should be angry. This whole GOOGLE and ICANN power grab should be exposed for the good of all Small Business Online Expansion. Its a deeper issue that has long gone unfettered and accepted so a few rich concerns could flourish at the expense of the Middle Class Businessman. JAS 4/12/15
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) (Former Rockefeller IBEC Marketing Analyst/Strategist)
Gary is obviously missing the point. .Coms are a finite resource which are tapped out. The value of .Coms are dropping because the existing real estate is worthless. No one pays a lot premium to overlook a garbage dump and no business is going to buy a .COM domain name that does not reflect their business. New .gtlds are premium real estate. Ultimately, volume will not tell their story. It will be the quality of the communities that are built. It has only been a year since launch … how did .Com look after a year? It was a ghost town filled with virtual tumbleweeds. It takes some time to break the grips of a monopoly but based on the ire of .Com traditionalists, new .GTLDs are making their mark.
@ls
I guess you missed the fact that the regs were 1/10 what Icann predicted. Premium Real Estate??? NOT! Speculative for sure. You have no idea what extension is going to survive. You’d probably be better to take your money to a casino.
The difference between when .com came out is the internet was an absolutely unknown vehicle to the public whereas now it is extremely well known.
How many regs does it take for an extension to break even? I figure about 100k. With 2000 extensions or close you’ll need 40% of all the worlds population to register a domain.
“Almost half the world — over three billion people — live on less than $2.50 a day. At least 80% of humanity lives on less than $10 a day.”
Will these people be eagerly embracing buying domains??? Hmmmm!
BTW the above was a quote from PovertyIssues.org
Our names have started to renew. Renewals are strong and every one of our extensions (but the two lowest volume ones) are tracking net-gains. Make of that what you will. We also have 5 additional extensions not live yet: .car .cars .auto .lol .mom. Some of those will retail for under $10. Anyone who thinks the new gtld space is going to shrink against those types of renewal statistics and new extensions with low prices; frankly, is wishing reality away. Growth could slow as domainers who haven’t struck gold let some of their early registrations drop, that will cause the picture to undulate but new uptake will cause the overall chart to grow again. 10mm registrations by year-end.
Renewals are strong and every one of our extensions (but the two lowest volume ones) are tracking net-gains
Do North South Names pay retail price or just the ICANN fee? 25c a year is a lot easier on the wallet than $10 or $29 never mind premiums especially at 100,000s volume
Renewals are strong, ‘excluding’ NSN
gpm
Frank would have to speak to his internal accounting but the registry which is Uniregistry not North Sound Names has to pay ICANN a minimum of $25K per year, per string so they have to pay ICANN for 100K registrations per string whether they get them or not, so it does make sense to register domains since it doesn’t “cost” in Frank’s case any more to register them or not register them, I just wish he would not be competing with his own customers and register them.
It should be noted that North Sound Names has registered around 207K of the 411K Uniregistry domains giving them a 50% renewal rate to start with.
Hello MHB,
Thanks for the info. FSs GOODWILL towards OUR Industry has been violated and violated with many SLICK moves. JAS 4/27/15
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) (Former Rockefeller IBEC Marketing Analyst/Strategist)
Hello MHB,
The BRIC Nations Brazil, Russia, India, China look at the new Quasi- Derivative gTLDs as American Spam Vehicles. We see very little if any support (DEMAND), coming from these key driving Economies. That leaves uneducated Domainers as the new Quasi-Derivative gTLD Target Market. JAS 4/27/15
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger ) (Former Rockefeller IBEC Marketing Analyst/Strategist)
The real problem is the pricing in my opinion. To become a long term success, new gTLD prices must be competitive and attract masses of end users really using them, not just sitting on them hoping they’ll become the next big thing. As long as a single digit number of all registered new gTLDs is used for actual websites and businesses, it’s pretty obvious that it’s just a giant bubble.
We just had a public poll on our site where more than 65% people put .COM suffix behind the new gtlds like EXAMPLE.CLUB.COM v/s EXAMPLE.CLUB or EXAMPLE.WEBSITE.COM v/s EXAMPLE.WEBSITE this shows people’s mind connects a website address to dot com. Even personally in my case, I’m a regular visitor of craigslist.org but many-a-times i’ve type craigslist.com or craigslist.org.com mistakenly in addressbar!