Afnic.fr the registry for domain names in .fr put out a study that took a look at how is the proliferation of new gtlds affecting the existing gtld and cctlds that have been around for many years.
The study broke extensions into 3 separate categories:
The three main categories are:
- nTLDs: TLDs created since the end of 2013 and introduced to the market as of the onset of 2014; as of September 2014, there were 408 nTLDs;
- gTLDs or “legacy TLDs”: all 18 of them are generic TLDs created between 1985 and 2011. This category includes the .com, .net, .biz, .info, .org TLDs, to name the best-known;
- ccTLDs (country-code top level domains): these are geographic TLDs for national territories, e.g. .fr for France, .re for Reunion Island, .de for Germany, etc. There are approximately 270 ccTLDs to date, as the list varies according to the changes made to the ISO 3166-1 table. For our study, we considered 32 ccTLDs of more than 500,000 domain names, which represent almost 90% of the domains registered for a fee under geographic TLDs.
Afnic put together a graphic to highlight the growth patterns of each category and what affects they had.
The takeaway from the study was that the new gtlds were having a greater effect on the existing gtlds as opposed to country codes. The study goes into the fact that many existing gtlds may see their “defensive” type registrations no longer renewed as they are deemed worthless, that the new gtlds are making an impact by running promotions at discounted rates and even free.
The study sees the possible greatest strength of the country codes lies in their strong renewal rates.
Although the momentum in domain creations for ccTLDs is certainly being affected by the upsurge in competition, the portfolios of domain names have been built over time by domain holders who have voluntarily opted for their country-code TLD, to which they attach an importance that a bargain price cannot easily compromise. This kind of loyalty demonstrated by domain holders is probably the best defense that ccTLDs have against new TLDs.
Read the full study on Afnic
I think one of the things about the study is the category of gtlds will have the likes of .info and .biz and I think they are being impacted by the new gtlds at a much greater degree than .com is, so where the overall takeaway from the study has validity, I think it gets skewed as .com has to be thrown in there with its 17 younger and weaker brothers.
Although interesting, this histogram is something many readers will misinterpret if they’re only skimming. So, if I may be bit pedantic, a few points:
(1) These are monthly net adds rather than gross numbers. According to the same Afnic study, “nTLDs only represented about 1%” of total domains registered today.
(2) Monthly net adds means the difference between new registrations and domain drops. In 2014, both ccTLDs and gTLDs are subject to non-renewals of domains from last year. But nTLD drops cannot show up until 2015. That’s a fundamental and serious flaw. Basically we’re looking at only gross new registrations for nTLDs but setting them side by side with net growth (after drops are deducted) for gTLDs and ccTLDs.
(3) If, in 2015,monthly drops for nTLDs exceed monthly fresh registrations, we wouldn’t just see a smaller number in this histogram for the nTLDs. No, we’d actually see a NEGATIVE percentage.
(4) The growth in nTLD monthly net adds from March through September is not necessarily a sign of runaway success. In large part, it’s merely an expression of the ongoing rollout of new TLDs. In September there are more nTLDs to choose from than there were in March. So even if the sales of nTLDs released in March have slumped, the continued rollout gives the impression of an upward trend. Once the rollout ceases and the number of nTLD flavors on offer remains constant, then we can look for trends in growth or decline.
(5) Positive means growth. Because the figures for gTLDs and ccTLDs include drops, those categories had the chance to show a negative percentage rate. Next year, monthly nTLDs adds may go negative.
(6) Look at the far right: September. nTLDs report their gross numbers. gTLDs and ccTLDs report their net growth after drops. Afnic’s study indicates that for every 27 nTLDs registered (regardless of their future drop rate), gTLDs kept 38 and ccTLDs kept 35 after drops.
(7) Assume no nTLD domain is ever dropped. Ever. They just continue to be registered and renewed. Now picture gTLDs, ccTLDs, and nTLDs as runners in a race. Some of them had a huge head start, and they’re as far ahead as their total number of registrations today. Each month they move forward by the numbers you see in that histogram. So gTLDs and ccTLDs are not only far ahead of nTLDs. They’re also moving faster.
I agree Joseph and like I said .Com stands much taller among the gtld category, compared to the other 17. So that skews things too.
Great analysis, Joseph. One of the Presidential candidates should hire you.