This a list of the first 80 Non-IDN , Non-.Brand new gTLDs that should come to market first.
Why?
Because all of these are new gTLD’s are non contested, meaning there was only one application made for the string, none were subject to an GAC early warning and drew a low number in the ICANN draw.
Assuming the applications pass initial evaluation, are not put into a contention set by ICANN, no formal objections or GAC objection are filed, these are the most likely new gTLD’s which are not IDN’s/.Brands which should be hitting the market first.
Several Geographic TLD’s like .Paris .Berlin, .Tokyo, .Melbourne, .Budapest, Helsinki, .Okinawa and .NYC all should be among the 1st new gTLD approved and go to market.
There are other pseudo Geo terms as well like .Kiwi, .Thia, and .Swiss
We expect that the Geo extensions to be by in large very successful as they have a built in market of millions of residents and businesses.
We also excluded pseudo brands or highly restricted TLD’s like .Forex, .Creditunion .Mormon .Pharmacy and .GOP which although filed as a generic or generic/brand seem to be scheduled to be tightly controlled by the proposed registry and almost all of Amazon’s applications as they are using chatting about them for the most part being closed (using the answer to Question 18 on the Application).
Here is a list of 80 new gTLD’s that we think as we sit today, that will hit the market first, along with their draw number (1-108 were all IDN’s):
Camera 123
Menu 132
Lifestyle 144
Helsinki 148
IDN 150
Hiv 160
Prod 162
Wiki 181
Clothing 182
Lighting 183
Singles 185
Tattoo 187
Uno 190
Tokyo 199
Paris 200
CEO 206
Engineer 214
Voyage 216
Yachts 217
Swiss 220
Bid 242
Cymru 244
Cab 249
Guru 250
Thai 258
Democrat 261
Room 265
Equipment 267
Bike 283
Budapest 288
Okinawa 294
Safety 306
Codes 310
Contractors 319
Webcam 325
Business 326
Cal 329
Kiwi 331
Plumbing 343
Center 346
Study 349
Melbourne 350
Surgery 353
Soy 356
Analytics 363
How 364
Winners 366
Land 372
Sexy 373 (did receive Early waring from Iran After deadline)
Management 379
Pharmacy 391
Ads 392
Gratis 397
Lease 412
Berlin 423
Technology 432
Mov 440
Solutions 441
Smile 444
Ecom 456
NYC 465
Kim 478
Autos 488
Gallery 496
Careers 501
Dance 511
Blue 513
Market 515
Tour 517
Pink 520
Kinder 525
Hoteis 526
Diamonds 532
Link 534
Academy 544
Enterprises 548
Supplies 555
Fan 558
Company 559
Nagoya 565
When* do you realistically foresee the first “public” new gTLD to be active as a real resolving URL under the current browser protocol ?
Not sure if that made sense…
say free.camera ?
at the current moment my Navigator (Chrome) hijacks my browser type-in and redirects me to a Google search for the term.
( *Past: landrushes, Auctions, Disputes, Oppositions, Broohaha’s etc etc)
Domo
I think the earliest you will be able to go to a registrar and register a new gTLD domain will be in the 4th Q of 2013.
However I do not expect to see may of these live until 1st Q 2014
Michael,
Interesting list. The piece of analysis is to determine which ones will be successful.
What about string contention for singular vs plural forms?
(tour, careers, autos)
Thanks, I see some with potential “commercial use/application” but some EMO are going to haver very limited interest (aside domain flippers that must likely will play the “keyword game”) hence they will struggle to keep up with the high administrative costs and recurrent nominal fees …
Even at 50 USD per domain some of those New gTLDs will need tens of thousands of regs the first year just to stay afloat…
How about just end users who will be just as happy owning lawnservice.nyc for $50 than paying $20K for lawnservice.com
If its a stand alone registry I agree and not all will make money but the big applicants with say 50 or more if they get 20K registration X 50 is 1M registrations even at $20 its $20 Million a year ongoing
That’s why I said “some”, a few stand out as having “potential” commercial use/application :
.cab .engineer etc etc
but .pink? .soy? .how .whataHell?
You honesty see tens of thousands registration for those…?
do we already know which will be open to public registrations?
Domo
You have to read at question 18 on each application to see which will be opened and which will not.
Some will be restricted so some apps for .law will be only opened to licensed lawyers for example.
Some Geo will have local presence requirements like .nyc
No I don’t see tens of thousands of registrations for .pink or .soy
Good Grief!
I have to read response # 18 for more than 1700 applications?
Can somebody please do it for me…?
he he
.law should be one of the winners and probably a good money-maker.
Good luck with the “local presence” restriction, some c.c’s Country Codes have it and they have been less than successful implementing it.
Excellent list – thanks for putting it in context MB. Getting mighty interesting.
Tom
Plural Vs. Singular is for ICANN to determine if they are going to place them into contention sets, not for me to say
Michael, if the list is sorted by priority number and contains non-contested applications, you may have missed .ruhr ranking at 120, representing the geographic Ruhr region in Germany and .koeln, ranking at 126.
Domo, I agree to a certain point with your argument regarding local presence restrictions. Some cc´s have realized that they can increase their business by opening up. But looking at city TLDs, it is not uncommon that local authorities have demanded such a provision in order to protect their grounds. But as Michael says, check out Q18 for those that may interest you to find out their specific policies in that respect.
interesting list and good to see some geo TLDs will be getting online early – these will make intuitive sense for internet users compared to some of the more niche generics and will therefore play a role in educating users. Our contention set lucked out – even though we have 5 applicants in the group the highest draw number was 525 so i think we might hit the root around the same time as some of the non-contested domains listed above
BTW two early draw numbers in this list = kiwi & wiki – scores 87% in SWORD analysis – anyone fancy a sweepstake on whether ICANN will group them into a set?
Thomas L,
What I am saying is that it will be very hard to implement the “‘local presence” requirement/criteria, people will find a way around it whether throughout a proxy service (if that is possible) or using a fake or even a friend’s address …
Rhetorically speaking: If you are using a domain registrar based in NYC… will you have local presence?
Too many loopholes to contend with.
Even if successful at restricting it the end result would be less registration$…
damn if you do damn if you don’t
Take the highly restrictive “cultural domain” .cat (yes, dot cat) as an example, even years after inception as of late 2012 they had a whooping total of 5x,xxx registrations… Now, do the math at 10 EUR per reg (13 USD) .