In a story posted by Netnames.com, DotBerlin promoter Dirk Krischenowski gave his analysis on how many gTLD applications might not make it.
As we know there are over 1,900 applications still alive after several have been withdrawn for around 1,400 different strings.
Mr. Krischenowski concluded that that 521 would drop out because they are in direct contention sets and another 80 would be in indirect contention with another string (strings that are similar enough to risk causing Internet user confusion, but not identical).
He also suggests further drop out numbers:
- 40 due to successful objections;
- 20 geographic applications missing the required governmental support;
- 10 due to clashes with the country code ISO 3166 list (e.g. Google’s AND or EST applications);
- 15 failing extended evaluation;
- 24 applicants going bankrupt during the evaluation process and,
- 20 being blocked by GAC advice, i.e. governments saying they would request the ICANN Board not approve them.
Krischenowski’s “he has been heavily involved in the new gTLD program from day one and has spent years building an understanding of what motivates applicants and what constitutes likely new gTLD success or failure”.
“If he’s right, more than 700 applicants may end up not seeing the program through.”
“This would leave less than 1,200 actual new TLDs to be added to the Internet.”
The number 521 mentioned is about strings or applications?
From what I understand it is strings so the conclusion would not have been 1200 new TLDs but 1400-700=700.
The estimation I discussed with the audience at the Domainforum in Sofia was
1,930 Applications
– 521 gTLDs in direct contention sets
– 80 gTLDs due to similiarity contention sets
– 40 gTLDs due to lost objections
– 20 GeoTLDs due to lack of governmental support
– 10 gTLDs due to ISO 3166 list issues
– 15 gTLDs not approved in extended evaluation
– 24 gTLDs applicants go bankrupt
– 20 gTLDs due to GAC advice
= 1,200 surviving applications (not applicants)
So there will be 1200 new gTLDs. (application = string, after you take out the direct contention sets)
In your estimation you write “- 24 gTLDs applicants go bankrupt” and at the total you write “(not applicants)”. What do you mean?
Also an applicant may have more than one applications. So a single applicant going bankrupt may reduce significantly the number of strings. Have you taken that into account to reach the number 24?