However they also call for the percentage of .com and .net registration to shrink over that time to 40% due to the new gTLD’s.
“Upside to our forecast could arise from market share gains as new rules will allow businesses to register any domain name. This could lift our forecast for total user base of .com and .net domain names that we currently expect to increase from ~120 million this year to around 350 million by the end of our forecast.
“Aside from the growth in its tradition domain names business, Verisign will gain as organizations start to register their own domain names called general top-level domain names or gTLDs – think .google, .apple, etc. ICANN recently approved a plan to increase the number of generic top-level domains. This will open up opportunities for an organization to register its own top level domain, starting January 12, 2012.”
“If Verisign is able to attract new business by offering domain registrar services to the organizations applying for new gTLDs, that could mean a whole new revenue stream which will compensate for the decreasing growth in .com/.net domain name registrations. On the other hand, if it isn’t able to attract new business for the new gTLDs, it could end up losing market share.”
The one “fact” Trefis certainly missed is that the cost of .com and .net registrations will continue to rise well above the amount they have projected as the wholesale cost.
If you project out that Verisign will be able to raise prices in every 4 of 6 years under its contract the wholesale cost will be more than double of what they project it will be in 2018 ($8).
With prices set to rise to $7.85 in January 2012, We project $10.30 wholesale cost by 2018.
So what do you think about the predictions?
I think there’s going to be a good business to be made offering 360 degree management services for new TLDs.
If medium to large sized municipalities get on the custom TLD bandwagon, forget it. Lots of money to be made, very durable revenue streams to be had.
gTLD is just noise – won’t gain traction – the internet has peaked.
Per LS-
“Lots of money to be made”
aGreed – but it has nothing to do with the Internet and what UDRP and ACPA have made the Internet into. – .com
Will .com premium domain names value increase after new gTLD’s?
i think that in the end, .com’s will still remain the authoritative domain in most cases.
think Boston.Remax and Boston.Century21 … users will be limited to the realtors and properties under just that particular company… BostonRealEstate.com still remains more relevant as a go-to for ALL real estate properties or companies in the city…
I love it that registration of domains will continue to power ahead…to 350 million domains, and upwards…!
If that happens, the internet grows vastly – and untold numbers of new people come online, with untold numbers of new businesses, and new business models etc etc
The new TLD’s? Well, some – even quite a few – will be around….Some might even become important. But, they won’t dominate, imo……As long as the internet needs domains to operate as unique addresses, then, domain assets will be a phenomenal asset class to be invested in – and that especially includes the .com’s, as long as the USA economy remains a primary global economic driver.
There are many & huge fortunes to be made yet – both in owning .com domains, and building businesses on them….The TLD expansion ain’t going to significantly effect that, imo.
a prediction that may become true
What a strange prediction. For all we know in 2018 brand TLD’s are completly thrashing the current gTLD’s as we know it.
Now this mightbe an extreme example. What is certain that the domain landscape has been evolving super fast. Claiming 360 million registrations at 2018 is just picking a random number. Most companies cannot even look 5 years ahead and here we have some real bold claims based on nothing.
It could become a very different ballgame when non domain related power houses start digging into gTLD. Their approach willbe very different from what we have seen.
Anyways , entertaining never the less.
@ oldenglishd
-at best the consumer will go to Boston.Remax.com – not Boston.Remax – and likely Remax.com.
.coms are self-marketing and self-promoting and do not need SEO to survive.
All non.coms need SEO and a big marketing budget to survive.
Brand TLD’s will only be as good as the money spent in promting them – and that would be a lot of money – and eventually abandonded – just like .mobi dick as the rest
@Brian
How about Remax.Boston, Century21.Boston….Go after the (dot)Geo.
Hotels.Boston, RealEstate.Boston, Homes.Boston…..
-Peter
Hi Peter,
It all looks so good – just like BostonRealEstate.co, BostonHomes.info and Boston.Homes look good (only to the naive and impressionable).
US law , US case law, UDRP and ACPA have made .com the only one on the shelf – how many cases have there been where the Complainant goes after a non.com – and does not care about the .com ? – I have learned that I do not make the rules – in fact I play by the rules as crystal clear dictated by the Courts.
A registry selling them is one thing – but actually doing something productive with them – well it just ain’t so – as dictated by the Courts !!!
I’ve been investing heavily in .pro and .me domains as I think that .com marketshare has nowhere to go but down. It’s the focus of alot of blog posts that I make. I really like extensions that add something extra to the domain. .pro makes a domain keyword sound improved or trustworthy while .me makes a domain keyword wound more personal. .Me has been very effective on my cashloan.me site and I think catchy keyword combinations like this are the way of the future.
.Co
will make up the other 40%
of market share.
This will something in the order of 1 domain per 20 people opposing to 1 domain for 60 people. Honestly, we all wished that, but do we need that many domains?
What is the population of the planet
How many are online now Vs how many will be online is 10 years?
Yes there are lot more domains needed
Who Cares if .COM registrations are down 40% except for those who realize THREE things.
1) It means the really good .COMs are taken.
2) And that means Value of .COMs are growing fast.
3) It means More money to be made from buying & selling .COMS!