After reading the new gTLD Applicant Guidebook (AG) that was published today, my feeling is that ICANN will approve the program in Singapore as planned while some of the specific rules in the Guidebook may and probably will change along the way.
The newest version of the AG provides no material or substantive changes from the previous version.
There is a lot of cleanup going on but no earth shattering change.
ICANN does give itself plenty of wiggle room to make changes on an ongoing basis as it now provides in the AG:
“ICANN reserves the right to make reasonable updates and changes to this applicant guidebook and to the application process at any time by posting notice of such updates and changes to the ICANN website, including as the possible result of new policies that might be adopted or advice to ICANN from ICANN advisory committees during the course of the application process. ”
“Applicant acknowledges that ICANN may make such updates and changes and agrees that its application will be subject to any such updates and changes. ”
“In the event that Applicant has completed and submitted its application prior to such updates or changes and Applicant can demonstrate to ICANN that compliance with such updates or changes would present a material hardship to Applicant, then ICANN will work with Applicant in good faith to attempt to make reasonable accommodations in order to mitigate any negative consequences for Applicant to the extent possible consistent with ICANN’s mission to ensure the stable and secure operation of the Internet’s unique identifier systems.”
This language is consistent with statements made by the Chairman of ICANN at the San Fransisco ICANN meeting to the effect that the AG is an ongoing process with “changes made on the fly” as ICANN “learns as they go”.
Now that these thoughts have been included in the AG it seems to me that it sets the stage for approval of the program in Singapore, with the caveat to all applicants that some of the rules may, and probably will change, before and after the application period opens.
However that’s just another factor that applicants are going to have to take into consideration before making the leap.
Clearly ICANN wants and will push this program forward.
Those with the simplest applications, not subject to objection, will have their applications approved in as little as 9 months while others may under the AG have to wait as long as 20 months for an approval.
and simply put, some strings that are highly objectionable will probably never be approved.
I look for approval of the program in Singapore and a date set for the applications to be submitted.
November 1, 2011, is my guess.
I also predict by the time the first application period closes there will be hundreds of applications for new gTLD.
“Those with the simplest applications, not subject to objection, will have their applications approved in as little as 9 months while others may under the AG have to wait as long as 20 months for an approval.”
WTF!
9-20 Month’s! .. really ? they Need To Find a Fast solution For That .
existing extensions need to hang on tight in the new era of domains. More competition will be ok, that will definetly challenge existing domain extensions although many have considerable advantage for already having established user base.
I’m sticking with the establishment but may venture into some of the more wild ones that show up in the next few years. Its been my position that these new extensions could be very risky since it takes more than a name to make an extension.
Professional
“”Its been my position that these new extensions could be very risky since it takes more than a name to make an extension.”
Risky for sure, but did you ever hear the expression “the greater the risk the higher the reward”
For companies that will be applying to run a registry there is going to be lots of risk but for the successful ones, those with great extensions, money to properly market and promote and that has a team of experienced people, the rewards will be measured in the tens of millions of dollars, annually.
It is still not clear to me as to how ICANN is going to deal with the issue of creating monopolies over the top generic TLDs such as “ dot realestate “ or “ dot loan “ . Whoever gets these top generic TLDS is going to dominate that market for ever and even though people have a chance to out bid their competition in the auction phase, but what chance would a start up company have against the already established giants in each market. There is also the matter of generation monopoly that no one seems to pay any attention to, if all the top generic TLDs are given to our generation that will put all future generations in a big disadvantage because someone born today will have no chance of ever getting any of these generic TLDS.
I think domainers would take the risk and will more easily buy into the promise of glorious resales. But end users or people investing the money in developing a web business on any serious level would be more interested in buying into an established domain without having to worry about their fashionable extension of the day going broke.
oJohn
“”It is still not clear to me as to how ICANN is going to deal with the issue of creating monopolies over the top generic TLDs such as “ dot realestate “ or “ dot loan”
Its very clear under the Guidebook, how this works.
If you want to get a TLD like dot realestate or dot loan, you pay your $185k application fee and you apply for it.
If more than one company applies for it, it will probably come down to an auction and the high bid will get it.
“””Whoever gets these top generic TLDS is going to dominate that market for ever””
YES this is why I started RightoftheDot.com to help those companies with the foresight to take advantage of the opportunity as you correctly identify as legal monopoly
9~20 months! Are they going to go chanting on the Himalayas?
Have to wonder whether there’ll be uproar when businesses discover that the distribution of domains within TLDs may be less than equitable. Would not want to place too much money on ICANN being able to stick even to 9-20 months.
Murray
This new gTLD proposal has been discussed for years.
This is the 7th Guidebook.
There will be a lot of stories written on the new gTLD proposal if it passes in Singapore as well.
Its going to be very hard for any real business to claim “oh I didn’t hear about that”
Besides like always those who are on top of the info and have the means and guts to go through a process that has never been attempted are entitled to the spoils
Trouble is, many of the more interesting TLDs are unavailable to the likes of me. They’ll probably fall to community bids and without friends in high places or a degree in brown-nosing there is little chance of getting hold of them.
In any case it’s a nightmare process from my perspective. No knowing for sure that a given TLD will be approved or how it will be received, possibility of an ugly battle against other applicants, and maybe 2 years before anything useful can be achieved.
Were there no new TLDs, I’d have bought a .com and probably been well on my way to creating a great site. Can’t do it now unless I’m willing to risk getting smashed once the TLDs arrive.
Delist the new TLD’s, we will be. We also advocate for the removal of ICANN as the agency in charge of the top level registry. ICANN has proven they are no longer responsible administrators, we advocate the ITU take over, unpalatable as that may be, we wont end up with spammers in control of the internet, as we will under this current insane proposal.