We entered 2010 with much trepidation about what was awaiting us in this year.
As it turned out the domain world made it through another year in a bad economy, once again proving that domains are like a commodities, which like gold and silver continued to rise in prices.
While unemployment remained high in 2010 (still is) and the real estate market hasn’t seen a real recovery yet, there were signs that 2011 will be a much better year.
The stock market performed pretty well in 2010 and if you invested in some of the right stocks like Apple, Baidu, Netflix and Sirius you could have actually made a lot of money in the market.
So now we are on to the next one and here are our predictions for 2011:
2011 will be a good year for domain holders.
I think it will be record setting year in terms of number of sales and total dollar volume of sales of domain names as more end users come into the market.
Now the only problem when your dealing with end users many of them don’t want the deal disclosed so as there are more end user sales and less domainer to domainer sales many of these will be under NDA and therefore not counted in the official Ron Jackson Totals. Still by the end of 2011 I think most in the industry will agree it 2011 was a record setting year.
There are going to be some big domain properties sold in 2011, including some businesses in the domain world.
In 2010 we saw a top 10 registrar sold in Register.com to Web.com, and some prime internet properties like Insurance.com and Sex.com sold. Look for even more of these deals in 2011.
Your going to see some familiar and well know faces moving around the domain world.
Of course you all know that one of the best known people in the domain world, Monte Cahn is leaving Oversee on December 31, in 2011 you will see quite a few people on the move many away from the big companies in the space to smaller companies.
Of course that should not be that surprising as a survey by Manpower released yesterday showed that 84% of all workers want to change employers in the coming year.
The Godaddy.com Superbowl commercial featuring .Co extension will help .Co break the 1,000,000 registration mark by June 1.
I think the auction of i.Co will hit $350K or more when it gets auctioned off in February of next year. I also think you will see the previously purchase e.co sell for $350K or more in 2011.
By the end of the ICANN March meeting the .XXX extension will be approved as will a timetable for the new gTLD’s under which applications will start to be taken by the 3rd quarter of 2011.
None of the new gTLD’s will be live until 2012 with .brand extensions and sponsored Geo extensions like .paris and .berlin which will be the 1st to be approved.
.XXX will be live in the 2nd Q of 2011. I’m going to predict at least 300,000 registration by the end of 2011.
Trademark groups will keep pushing for another bill along the lines of the Leahy bill of 2010, which allows the government to seize domain names for IP violations.
I think even without such a bill, law enforcement will continue to step up its domain seizure efforts, after all the Kentucky domain seizures are still pending in court, over 2 years later and the ICE domain seizures have gone unchallenged.
.So which will be relaunched in 2011 will be a total failure.
Besides being a pretty bad extension with minimal use, (the tag line SO What comes to mind) its the ccTLD for Somalia which as you wouldn’t feel comfortable trying to transport a pack of gum through without getting held up by pirates.
Other major issues to keep an eye on in 2011:
Anything is possible including a pure renewal of the existing terms, renewal with some modifications (my prediction), to non-renewal which would end ICANN authority.
Before you all start hoping for the end of ICANN the issue would be who would take over for ICANN it might be put in the lap of the UN for example. So the alternative could be worse.
The Kentucky Domain Seizure case is still in the courts and its outcome could greatly effect the industry. Like I said keep your eye on it.
Another case to keep your eye on is the CFIT case against VeriSign. The case which is now in the discovery process is looming while the VeriSign contract is up for renewal in 2012. Will 2011 bring a settlement? Keep your eye on it.
One caveat to all the predictions above.
As we all know there is heighten security around the world and several planned terrorist attacks have been thwarted.
A major successful major terrorist attack could change the whole year around.
Lets hope for the best.
Happy New Year!!!
From my vantage point, the future looks bright.
– TBC
Hello Mike,
Thank you for your correct observation. Our dear friend Rick Schwartz has posted some important information that all domainers should read today. Both you and Rick have provided the transparency that all domaners crave. Thank You !
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Metal Tiger)
I hope your predictions are right and 2011 is even better than 2010. I didn’t see you mention .tv domains – any insight on those?
I also hope 2011 will be a good year for .co
Chris
Other than Oprah and Own TV I’m not sure what could get this extension to break out next year.
If Oprah was using Own.TV as its main site then I would have mentioned it as a reason .Tv will break out in 2011 but Own.TV is just forwarding to:
http://www.oprah.com/own
“Predictions For 2011”
===
Think global – profit local
What goes on in .VEGAS stays in .VEGAS
What goes on in .MIAMI stays in .MIAMI
10,000 Americans each DAY will turn 65
2011 is the start of the Post World War II Baby Boom – Sonic Boom of Retirees
Two former presidents Clinton and Bush turn 65 and lead the pack
The Internet will fracture into 4 or 5 major continents (realms) super-domains
TEEN – Gamers
ADULT – Commerce
SENIOR
CHAOS
Non-USA
Domainers will likely continue to profit on the CHAOS net + Non-USA net
Sell to the Market
10,000 Americans each DAY will turn 65
My predictions for 2011:
Holders of meaningful, keyword-relevant .com domains do well. The curve for what constitutes legitimate, salable keyword quality in a domain name continues to drift upward. Surprising stuff starts to drop, even more surprising stuff clears the prereleases and into pending delete.
The market relevancy of .co remains entirely in the realm of domainers.
IDN.РФ starts to sink it’s claws into Russia.
ICANN’ers take lots of trips to exotic locales- five star all the way.
Tablets- either computing or ereaders- hit critical mass. Today, you see them on trains in New York, Chicago and LA. In 2011, they break in to Cornhole, Oklahoma.
Content quality becomes the word of the day in the SEs. Significant algo countermeasures are employed to combat the garbage.
The engines continue to arbitrate exact matching domains as one of the most meaningful relevancy anchors there can possibly exist, however, the boost is lowered a bit. This is done in conjunction with content quality issues, in preparation for a lot of new TLD’s coming out and a lot of new exact matching domains being made available to people who have no intention to deliver the types of quality content that the search engines want to deliver.
If you didn’t start developing in 2010 to get that age and trust clock rolling, you’re going to wish you had. If you don’t start in 2011, this will be on your “Things I Wish I Had Done in 2011…” list for New Years, 2012.
LS
Regarding ICANN meeting the next of course is in San Fransisco which should be the most attended ICANN show although not sure if they make attendance figures public, which is why I did not make that prediction.
The next meeting after will be in Amad Jordan, which I think due to being in the middle east and due to security concerns a lot of people including myself will skip
The Internet will fracture into 4 or 5 major continents (realms) super-domains
TEEN – Gamers
ADULT – Commerce
SENIOR
CHAOS
Non-USA
Domainers will likely continue to profit on the CHAOS net + Non-USA net
————
Hahahaha, this is pretty insightful. Add “SHOPPING” and I think you’ve pretty much summed up where we are already, metaphorically speaking anyway.
It will be interesting to see how the moral crusaders in positions of authority react to the introduction of .xxx and what mandates start raining down in terms of adult content. IMO, wild-ass guess, but this could be the Pearl Harbor of a ‘multi tiered internet’, structured and regulated on the back end.
“Add “SHOPPING” and I think you’ve pretty much summed up where we are already”
===
The Bankers want a BANK net and would like “SHOPPING” to be part of that.
There are many ways to slice and dice. Some religions would like their .OWN net.
.GOP and .O’BAMA (the Irish guy) may have their own networks
The U.S. FCC appears to be focused on Bandwidth as their criteria for Tiers.
(That allows them to more easily close the borders and put international access on sloooooow text-message-like services)
With 10,0000 Americans turning 65 every day, it is hard not to sell them what they want. Porn is not high on their list. Game shows, slot machines & voting are big.
there will be a .Shop when the new gTLD’s are approved.
There are several companies going for it including dotshop.com
To the major group of internet realms, you forgot to add Social Networking – Facebook, Twitter, Yelp and so on.
For domains, I pretty agree with what many say here, good domains will continue to sell well. The wildcard will be how well alternate extensions do like .co and the slew of new tld’s that are to come.
As for other investments, two things will shape 2011 and the next few years
1) the emergence of China and other developping countries. Look for investments that serve these countries – they need more oil, coal, copper and agriculture products. Look for American companies that are expanding into these developping countries and get some of their earnings in non-American currency. Study what is happening in China to get an idea of the scope.
2) In North America the baby boomers start to turn 65, like others mentioned. I think many have to put off retirement til later because they can’t afford it, but their needs and wants will have a big effect on the economy like it has throughout the past decades.
The American economy looks to be slowly recovering but is not out of the woods yet, it will be interesting to see how the US does in 2011 with all the money that’s been printed for economic stimulus. Also interesting to watch will be Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy.
“there will be a .Shop when the new gTLD’s are approved”
===
1. DNS is not required to operate a network.
2. The fractured networks will be different protocols and transports. Think trains and planes.
3. International “access” will be via proxies at the borders with customs and immigration, etc.
4. Market research shows most Americans have little interest in IDNs and less interest in identity theft by hackers from known hotbeds. Why allow them on the SENIOR net ?
Big Lie
Yes a ton of baby boomer are going to start hitting social security age and will go on the dole.
How the country is going to afford it is a fair question, but well outside this blog and this post.
Your point however is made and more comments saying the same thing are not required at this point
Finally if you think that 65+ year old male’s have no interest in porn, you don’t know the people I know.
2011 Prediction
===
More Clueless Domainers will appear and add less and less clue.
Domainers really do live on their own planet. It will be interesting to see what
happens at the various ICANN events in (and around) San Francisco.
Will Domainers discover there is another world of real DNS people in 2011 ?
Will real DNS people discover that real .NET people have created other networks ? and taken the eyeballs over there —-> Spanish Spoken Here
“Finally if you think that 65+ year old male’s have no interest in porn, you don’t know the people I know.”
===
[[Head Slap]] MHB is right. Hef at 84 is getting married again to a 24 year old.
and ICANN is all over this
JP’s presents…
The SWINGERS AfterParty!
Hosted by Ron Jeremy and
Claudia Marie
On the Rooftop at
Larry Flynt’s Hustler Club
Las Vegas – January 8th, 2011!
Porn Stars, Swingers and Hustler Honey’s… All in Las Vegas! All at One Time!
Party is part of the AVN show in Vegas.
You should check it out
Nothing to do with ICANN however
“Nothing to do with ICANN however”
===
Has ICANN decided not to ad.venture into the Adult Content Industry ?
2011 Prediction – Uncle Sam NTIA, FCC, FTC and DOJ will convince ICANN to move to Switzerland – DAVOS – dominated by the King and Queen of Jordan
I wish someone would develop a Big Lie Society Translation App.
I’m certain there’s some sort of meaning in what he’s trying to say, but for the life of me, I can’t make heads or tails of about 80% of it.
LS
Develop an app for that
“I think it will be record setting year in terms of number of sales and total dollar volume of sales of domain names as more end users come into the market.”
Mike wouldn’t you say that this likely increase will be a combo of a possible increase in buyer pool (your prediction) and the fact that more domainers are actively pushing sales with the ppc decline ? I think as more of these domains are becoming “buyable” ie Frank and Kevin are more approachable to buy from, you’re naturally going to see sales numbers going up. New and improved channels are also providing a better supply to the buyers pool.
Is the buyer pool is growing at a faster rate than usual though? Could you give some color to why you’d predict that growth ?
Did everyone get their invitation to the 2011 Top Secret ICANN meetings ?
…in Switzerland
://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHNhsi772w
Am I mistaken or is David Sams close to Oprah?
Someone should get on the horn with David and find out why OWN.TV isn’t being used for the OWN programming that will come down the TV pipeline in 2011.
If someone learns of this information, please drop me a line.
Adam
One could argue that by placing more domains on the market by those who previously refused to sell domains, would in fact increase the inventory and lower the price just as you could argue that this increase in available domains will lead to more sales.
Bottom line sales are driven by buyers.
We can have 1,000 domains on the market or 10,000,000 domains but the real question is how many buyers do we have AND do buyers have more urgency to acquire and lock down internet properties.
I think between Facebook and all the sales data we are seeing the light is finally going off on main street and wall street and there is going to be a mad rush onto the net to secure a presence. I think consumers, businesses and John Q public are think a lot more about domains than they did 2 years ago and understand that these are valuable assets.
This is what I’m seeing on my own portfolio while I discuss domains with potential buyers.
I think 2011 is going to be a huge year but certainly not the last huge year for domains.
2011 is going to start the ball rolling and its going to roll hard.
2011 predictions
1. After godaddy roles out the .co commercial that will push .co into a new level. It is so small right now but this ext is going to be on a roll in 2011. Talk about the biggest land grab in recent history. The buyers will mostly all be from out of the US. If you can’t figure out why then you need to research who owns what right now. >CO will be the biggest story once again.
2. PPC will go down again probably 10-15%. I am talking percentage wise not traffic wise. Companies will pay more for quality traffic rather the cheap quanity traffic. This is why affiliate with pay per lead or pay per transaction will go up around 20%.
3. Gambling domain names will be of high risk to reward. You will see more of these type of names being bought in 2011 than ever before. States need to raise more revenue you just may see a California or other state push for online gambling or put the steps into place. Will be interesting to see.
4. You will see a decline in blogs and the rise of vlogs. Video is in and technology has made it so easy with the iphone and 4g that blogs will be like owning pager in five years. Will not be able to put up fake stories or blogs anymore. Vlogs will certify who you are by video.
5. Vlogs, Tablets, and Mobile game domain names will be like what insurance and loans names where 10 years ago. Just starting to roll.
Donny1
Of course you need to due your own DD on anything you buy.
Don’t forget, marijuana domains will be great too.
I already have big offers on my domains.
GTG–time to smoke a couple of dopies
It will be up to ICANN to tell everyone they have just been on the Practice Internet – They do not “own” any domains – They can move to The.Real.Internet in 2011
http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/24/its-a-mad-mad-mad-mad-mad-app-world/
It will continue to be an App world. Domains sales will reflect this as well as monetization schemes to take advantage of this just as ringtones used to do so.
(I am biased though as I own a few in this space 🙂
The Godaddy.com Superbowl commercial featuring .Co extension will help .Co break the 1,000,000 registration mark by June 1.
==========
Yes, Now that the old believers don’t believe this should bring in
a new swarm of innocent suckers with the same ole,
about still time to buy some Golden property for the Children’s future
and be lead to the Internets new …
“Promised Land”
Yeah, It will break the mark alright and your BANK also
for this pie in the sky future worthless junk.
Buy some Dom Perignon Champagne for New Years,
get something for your money!
2010 Summary – 2011 Prediction
://domain.opendns.com/thedomains.com
“Awaiting votes”
://domain.opendns.com/mostwanteddomains.com
Parked Porn ?
25,000,000,000 (yes Billion) DNS queries per day ?
2011 Reputation.DNS becomes very big and expensive
I think you’re spot on with your predictions Mike.