Up to yesterday all the guidebooks on the new gTLD’s and the general consensus was that ICANN would limit cross ownership of registrars and registries by to a certain minority position of somewhere between 2%-15%. (You can read about some the reaction in the domain world here).
So having a day to reflect on this move, I see it as only meaning one thing.
The big boys win and the small guys lose.
By removing the cross ownership restrictions you can have a company like Godaddy who already gets 50% of all new domain registrations, apply to operate the registry for many new gTLD’s and sell them only through Godaddy.com, not allowing any other registrar to resell those new gTLD’s.
In this case Godaddy would receive 100% of the retail price of the cost of registration.
They do more than cut out the middle man.
They deprive the middle man, the registrars from selling the products.
Of course by offering their own gTLD owned registry products they have less room or desire to sell other new gTLD’s owned by other companies.
So if a new TLD registry doesn’t have access to Godaddy.com because Godaddy is selling their own registry’s products the new TLD registry is not going to have access to 50% of the retail market.
To a company like Godaddy which not only would own the registry but would also control the retail channel, a new gTLD is worth so much more than to a company that would only operate the registry. So not only do these companies have more cash but they can spend more because the registry its just worth a lot more to them.
Lets play out the scenario where each of the top 10 registrars go out and apply to operate registries for their own TLD’s and decide only to sell those extensions on their registrar site
Every TLD not owned by one of the top 10 registrars would be effectively shut out of the retail market, having to depend on registrars controlling less than 20% of the market to sell their product.
Will it happen, I don’t know.
Could it happen?
After yesterday’s board action, the answer is yes.
Lets not just pick on Godaddy.com, which reportedly recently turned down an offer of between $1.5 BILLION to $2 BILLION dollars to sell, there are plenty of other companies that are popping champagne bottles at ICANN decision.
A company like Demand Media, which owns a top 10 registrar in Enom.com can do the same as we described with Godaddy.com.
Demand has already filed for its IPO which would raise well over a hundred of millions of dollars.
Then there is VeriSign, which already operates the .com and .net registry.
As of the end of the third quarter VeriSign is sitting on $2.2 BILLION dollars in cash.
$2.2 Billion dollars in cash.
There are registrars that are public companies like Tucows.com which is sitting on over $5 million in cash, and even publicly traded companies like Neustar, which provides back end services for many registries which is reportedly sitting on $380 million dollars in cash.
Oversee.net which owns Moniker.com another top 1o registrar received $150 Million investment from OakHill and could be a player.
These large very profitable corporations can basically outspend and outbid the small entrepreneurial guys all day long, each time and everytime.
Under the guidebook when there is more than one applicant for the same gTLD, the winner will be determined by auction.
How would you like to have spent $185K in application fees for a TLD only to find yourself bidding against VeriSign, Godaddy and Demand Media for the right to run the registry?
I don’t like your chances.
ICANN describes the new gTLD process and the reason for launching the program as:
“””Since ICANN was founded more than ten years ago as a not-for-profit, multi-stakeholder organization dedicated to coordinating the Internet’s addressing system, one of its foundational principles has been to promote competition in the domain name marketplace while ensuring Internet security and stability.”
“The expansion of the generic top-level domain (gTLD) space will allow for a greater degree of innovation and choice.”
“In a world with over 1.6 billion Internet users – and growing – diversity, choice and competition are essential to the continued success and reach of the global network.”
It sounds nice but you can only foster competition if there are competitors.
In one unexpected resolution the ICANN board just dramatically reduced the competition.
This decision almost insures that there will be less competitors for TLD’s
The whole new gTLD system now seems to have been in all practicality thrown into the hands of only a few large companies.
So There won’t be more competition, just more extensions controlled by a few huge companies many of which own the distribution channel.
Instead of hundreds of small startup’s going for a TLD extension which would bring a ton of new players into the domain industry, I predict your going to see a few large corporations controlling the registry and the distribution channel.
Big guys Win.
Small Guys Lose.
One more thing to keep in mind, is that as existing registries want to be treated under the same rules as the new gTLD’s registrar’s which means big changes maybe ahead for existing extensions.
true, and, someday, the biggest (Google) will win on all them!
Interesting points & analysis Mike. As an observer & customer of almost all these registrars and registries (plus ICANN), I developed a clear impression that substantial accountability must be present to help insure that many of these companies operate above board.
It’s a little concerning the consolidation that’s occurring and the likely injection of politics that will play out. The domain name market has always suffered historically from lack of oversight, regulation.
Hopefully, free market forces and consumer dollars will be enough to safeguard current stakeholder interests. The one positive I see coming out of registry expansion is more money coming in … which allows the registries to do a much better job of marketing their tld products in the global market.
@MHB
With all due respect, I think you are missing several pieces of the puzzle.
[Note: GoDaddy management was very vocal in their DIS-satisfaction with the decision. Also, note GoDaddy is NOT an SEC Public Company you can buy.]
One piece that you are missing is that ICANN (IANA) {Uncle Sam} no longer
controls the distribution channel AFTER registrations are made. Many small
guys manage that channel. They are called ISPs, vISPs, OpenDNS, etc. Yes,
Google has jumped into that pipeline. Anyone can. OpenDNS is an example.
While it is true that high-demand strings like ONLINE, INC, WEB, USA, LAW,
ETC, will be hosted by the high-end Registry Platforms, the market place still
has to buy their product, sub-domains. Once they do that, the well-healed
Registry has to face the “Small Guys” for distribution. As some Registries
very quietly disclose, they now pay (payola) to be advertised. A gTLD does
not appear to the consumer without a pipeline of distribution.
There are many other facets to consider. One of the more important is the
fact that S.C.U.B.A DNS will eventually build on the Work Product of the
well-healed Registries. Sit back and watch them invest their billions. Then
build on that.
@MHB
Four other factors (unknowns) to consider:
1. Uncle Sam may be ready to step in and declare some artificial twist such as requiring that ALL Registrars (as of some date) get to choose 3 FREE TLDs.
It could be a random drawing in Washington, D.C. with a lot of hoop-la.
[Note: Many people do not know that Volume Domainers have gamed the
previous system, by becoming Registrars. They already bypass Retail and
go direct to Wholesale (.COM). Is that fair ?]
2. Small countries and Private ccTLD operations (cloaked as countries) would
love to also be part of the 3 FREE TLD drawing, or have first shot at .CANADA?
They like Cash2Cows!!!
3. The fate of .COM still remains a mystery. As with all things ICANN and
especially all things Verisign, the public is likely not privy to what is really
going on. It is interesting an ICANN Board decision is made and within 24
hours the 900 lb. Reston Gorillas have new “products” ready. Verisign has
likely been told by Uncle Sam, that Obama plans to take .COM like .GM.
Obama can run .COM from a server next to his desk as a Sub-$1 vending
machine.
4. Do not under-estimate Microsoft, Yahoo, BING, etc. They are poised with
FREE domains. What part of FREE don’t you undertand? Even the OBAMA
.COM at $1 may not be able to compete with FREE.
Jim
Regarding Godaddy it doesn’t matter if they were for or against this proposal.
With my lawyer hat on the questions is the system set up in a way that one party can dominate the system making other success for all practical purposes impossible.
Besides company’s position change, when the rules change.
Regarding the rest of your comments as usual I don’t understand them
@MHB
“as usual I don’t understand them”
===
Take one example, over 25 BILLION DNS queries flow thru OpenDNS each DAY.
IF OpenDNS decides a new gTLD does not exist, millions of people will not see it.
OpenDNS is a “small guy”.
@MHB
Note: We are in agreement on fairness of “the system”. It is not a simple, line up with $185,000 for a Black Friday Special at Best.Buy.
Also, note many like miss some of the subtle discriminators already becoming clear. In the Neustar Press Release about WhiteLabel Registry-in-a-Box Back.Office services…it indicates that will be available to REGISTRARS. (not just anyone)
Anyone that has followed the ICANN machine for more than 10+ years will see that ICANN and their partners are terrified of doing business with some group that has not been Vettted.Thru.The.Center.of.The.Sun and Back. Other groups
are labeled as potential “terrorists”. Therefore, it is natural that EXISTING
members of the CLUB, Registries and Registrars, will continue to be the only
insiders with insider access.
ICANN is terrified to allow anyone in, they do not know. They will allow them to come to some free charade meeting, where the vetting starts, but it takes years before they are allowed “in”. Compare that to an ISP that starts up, buys an ASN, an IP block and has a seat at the BGP routing table.
Two other points…
1. Anyone with $185,000 is likely years away from anything “real” happening. A lot can happen in the industry between now and then. Witness the way ICM Registry was given the good-old PBS-like run-around with no .XXX cigar.
2. As those years wear on, you also get to watch others put in line ahead of you.
Check out the latest from the ICANN web site.
“Developing Economies and the New gTLD Program”
“how can ICANN assist applicants from developing economies to increase their participation in the new generic Top-Level Domain (New gTLD) Program?”
====
you also get to watch others put in line ahead of you.
you also get to watch (small guys) put in line ahead of you.
you also get to watch (hand-selected Vettted small guys) put in line ahead of you.
It gets old
I think ICANN sees that the power of .com is gaining and the introduction of new TLDs is a hopeless disaster- see mobi, tel, asia. Remember they do not control or even have a say over ccTLDs. (Not to worry, fake gTLD’s are just as weak as the lame “new” gTLDs–you will see once the shine is off the .co launch in less than 2 years–“.eu anyone?” or “.bz is HOT” “.cc has potential”) ICANN’s mission to in ensure competition and the only way to get adoption up on these new TLDs is to allow them to be “Owned” vertically. What they re really trying to do is force a group of these new tlds to make up a single “competitive force” against which they can put .com/Verisign.
FYI Google is an accredited registrar for .com/.net along with AOL and Microsoft.
“ICANN’s mission to in ensure competition”
===
ICANN was formed primarily by THE Clintons and Ira Magaziner and an entourage of people who are all about one thing: CONTROL
Business people who understand that “Eco.System” have played it and prospered.
The Pattern used to run the Eco.System can be applied to many other industries
in the world. Fairness, competition, open, transparent, etc. are not reality. It is
all about back-room deal-making and public image. It is ironic that the Internet
helps to expose it, yet has become the prey of that “System”.
Hi Michael – I came to very different conclusions from yours. One reason, perhaps, is that I think you’ve misinterpreted the ICANN Board’s ruling slightly. Although registrars and registries can now be co-owned, the equal access provisions remain in place. So GoDaddy cannot start a TLD and refuse access to other registrars. Like any other registry, they will have to allow access to any accredited registrar.
I actually think the ruling will increase competition. It will also increase the number of new TLDs. In my opinion it will actually reduce the market power of GoDaddy because new gTLD registries won’t be as dependent on registrars to distribute their product.
Why is that? Because under the old scheme, if you started a TLD, you would have to go to registrars and basically beg them to take your TLD. There were persistent rumors that GoDaddy and others were going to insist on getting big equity stakes simply to agree to offer TLDs, and it would cost even more for good positioning. With the new ruling, GoDaddy retains its power for TLDs that want to take advantage of the registrar channel (e.g., mass market TLDs).
But with the new ruling smaller TLDs, especially those who are selling to a defined niche and know their market, can bypass big registrars and sell directly to consumers through their co-owned registrar. As an example, if you’re the AARP, and you want to get people to buy .aarp names, you can tell people to go to register.aarp, instead of “go to your favorite registrar.” As anyone running an Internet business knows, driving and converting traffic is a lot easier when you can tell them where to go, and when you control the website experience. The new rules make marketing a registry a LOT easier, and I would make the argument that you’re a lot better off being in control of your own marketing than depending on registrars to do it for you.
So I think we’re going to see not a concentration of power, but rather a healthy decentralization.
The ruling also makes it a lot easier to try out different business models. Before, if you didn’t make your TLD resemble .com, you’d have a tough time getting registrars to take it on. For instance, if you were .aarp and wanted to restrict your TLD to AARP members, a lot of registrars would balk, just because they didn’t want to add a checkbox to the order flow. Now AARP can decide to go directly to its members and include whatever restrictions they want. In addition, the AARP can now bundle other member benefits to a domain registration, such as hotel discounts, early-bird specials, whatever. Try getting a registrar to do that!
I wrote up some of my thoughts on my blog.
No real news here, why is anyone surprised?
Other registries have done this, like THNIC in Thailand and have had good outcomes. In the case of .TH the company running the registry gradually developed their platform to allow other registrars to compete, and now most new registrations happen via these 3rd party registrars.
Countries that do things “the right way” like Vietnam, with it’s ccTLD .VN are often worse. They chose a preferred vendor, setup a regulatory environment that prohibited competitors, and ran a rigged system for years that remains to this day investor-hostile.
The key here is realizing that ccTLDs are not gTLDs. The countries do have near-complete control of the decision making. If you invest in something under the control of another nation, you need to understand the issues and make your decisions based on them. Complaining about it is not appropriate.
Great post Mike, definitely a “could happen” scenario. From my perspective this gives the whole domain space a hard twist.
If registrars have their own TLDs, would they still invest in promoting TLDs in which they have less profit? Not likely. Registrars have the customer base and that counts for a HUGE part of the equation. I have spoken to guys at Demand Media a couple of times on this, and this decision just fits in perfectly from them IMO.
Gerardo
regarding godaddy
i wouldnt be surprised if a Chinese company buys godaddy seeing they are sinking the USD in a controlled manner and investing heavily in anything that looks pretty and gives them a controlling market share.
Antony
I’m not aware of a policy where each registrar must carry and sell every TLD
Where is this policy stated?
Even if there is a must carry rule, what domains are going to be listed first on godaddy.com drop down menu, the one’s they own or one’s other people own?
The potential for abuse and to shut out the retail market by this board action is huge.
Sure a brand new extension can start its own registrar and sell its own product but good luck to them joining a space with hundreds of active registrars where one controls 50% of the market all by itself.
It would work for Apple or Google, a global brand with millions of monthly visitors, again the big boys will be fine.
It would also work with AARP another group with millions of members already, another big boy.
But if an small entrepreneur group wants to become the registry of one extension, they don’t have those millions of members or eye balls, yes they can start there own registrar but good luck.
Chris
Godaddy is no longer for sale
It is all about back-room deal-making and public image. It is ironic that the Internet helps to expose it, yet has become the prey of that “System”.
One can imagine a very large SNAKE which for years has been eating a meal… starting at its own tail. Now, 50% into the meal, the snake starts “feeling” some pain and wondering what has been eating it.
99% of the world are spectators. What will the SNAKE do ?
99% of the world are spectators. What will the SNAKE do ?
DELAY, distract, debate…
h t t p :// http://www.ietf.org/id/draft-liman-tld-names-04.txt
What does one see here ?
http://www.ietf.org/id/draft-liman-tld-names-04.txt
…
first pass, the people…all “experts” of course…all hard-core Eco.System insiders (of course)
…
J. Abley – Joe, ICANN, ex-Afilias, NZ native like ICANN Chairman Peter Degate Thrush
Tina Dam – ICANN, IDN Sales, Danish, Social Glue
Patrik Faltstrom – Geek, Cisco, Scandanavian cleric, IGF
John Klensin – Vinton Cerf’s Cleric – Mr. Delay & Distract – IDNs
Thomas Narten – IBM (who is behind that corporate curtain?)
Andrew Sullivan – ICANN Director Steve Crocker’s Canadian cleric
…
What does one REALLY see here ?
http://www.ietf.org/id/draft-liman-tld-names-04.txt
…
look closely…it jumps right out in a 10 second read…
ICANN shocked the domain world and they are playing it smart. From the marketing perspective?
Let registrars own registries and registries own registrars. Then all the work of promoting and marketing new gTLD’s is own others. ICANN knows Godaddy and other will then promote and market the crap out of these “.whatever” tld’s. This will bring awareness and make other corps want to follow owning there own TLD’s.
No expenses on marketing, making it a no brainer.
ICANN sacks in the cash and say’s fella’s keep realing them in. It’s a money printing machine by it’s best.
@Chip actually according to the the Sedo Q3 sales report i just read .eu trailed only .de and .co.uk in percentage of cctld aftermarket sales.
“ICANN sacks in the cash and say’s fella’s keep realing them in. It’s a money printing machine by it’s best.”
===
For long-time ICANN watchers, it is also a subtle move to higher ground.
Look deeper at the 1998 Retail-Wholesale “model” imposed by [THE Community].
That put ICANN in the position of managing a Registrar’s Labor Union (Esther Dyson’s Vision). One can review all that
history. One can only wonder at how much day-to-day “customer service” (overhead and headaches) is required to field all the calls and emails from 900+ Registrars. Why would ICANN want to do that ? BO-RIng
Along with the [ICANN Experiment] also came the first CyberSpace TAX System, sometimes called the Dyson Tax. IF one could tax everything that
moves on the Internet, one could sit back and make money while they sleep.
The new ICANN CEO has stated….”He who is in the Flow, gets the Dough”.
The new “moves” Reduce the Work and Increase the Revenue (and Profit).
“sack in the cash”!!!!!
For long-time ICANN watchers, it is also a subtle move to higher ground….
…LONDON….Geneva ?
http://icannology.blogspot.com/2010/11/vint-cerf-at-6uk-launch.html
Mike, why are you so surprised? Most of ICANN’s money and power comes from those big corps so ICANN wants to keep them happy.
I believe the registries’ ICANN contracts require them to treat all registrars equally, so Godaddy-Registry couldn’t prevent other rars from selling a TLD. What they *could* do is provide a volume discount that only their rar would qualify for, and perhaps give their rar the exclusive contract for the landrush auctions. Fun stuff!
The world changed but these people still think it is 2007. There is a massive trend towards ccTLD registrations. The non-core (almost everthing other than .com/net/org/info) TLDs are losing market share against ccTLDs. Some of the sustained growth in .com may be attributed to ccTLD/com pair registrations where registrants registering their ccTLD domain will also register the .com if it is available. A mere hint of a registry/registrar hoarding domains in a new gTLD will turn that new gTLD into a desert.
“TLDs are losing market share against ccTLDs. ”
===
Length matters.
ccTLD == 2-Letter TLD
…
.0 (zero) from Microsoft will be the winner
@ Duane said: “ICANN sacks in the cash and say’s fella’s keep realing them in. It’s a money printing machine by it’s best.”
LOL! Good summary! 🙂
REGISTRY AND REGISTRAR SEPARATION POLICY
The Registrant Pays the Check
Big Brother on Steroids…
://blog.icann.org/2010/11/an-update-on-icann-security-efforts/
Back to the FUTURE…??
…
Head back a few years and then fast forward…
…
Imagine Tiger Woods steps forward with $185,000 to back .GOLF
…
[Tiger enters the ICANN Star Chamber]
…
The Great OZ Speaks!!!
…
“Welcome Mr. Woods – We want to determine if the .GOLF Community supports your application”
…
TW…’uh ok’
…
[Enter Bimbos with files and photos…]
…
“We see here Mr. Woods you have many girl friends…”
…
TW…’uh what is this?’
…
OZ: “Quiet Mr. Woods THE Community is Speaking…”‘
It doesn’t matter if GoDaddy “supposedly” said they are dissatisfied with the matter. This has all the appearances of Rod Beckstrom being beholdin’ to GoDaddy. Perception is reality. If it looks like a fish and smells loke a fish, it’s probably a stinky fish. GoDaddy is laughing all the way to the bank. For now, anyway. Just wait until potential buyers, or pre-IPO financial disclosures and you’ll see GoDaddy deflate faster than an inflatable Danica Patrick doll for lonely geeky losers and pasty middle aged men.
@Mike: I gues it all depends on how you define it. If you want to call .eu a success than maybe it makes sense….even if 88%+ of the eu addresses are redirected to other TLDs…the other 12%? mainly 404 pages and parking. There is just about 0 content on that TLD.
@Jim Flemming
Dude, what are you smoking?
“Welcome Mr. Woods – We want to determine if the .GOLF Community supports your application”
…
TW…’uh ok’
…
[Enter Bimbos with files and photos…]
…
“We see here Mr. Woods you have many girl friends…”
…
TW…’uh what is this?’
…
OZ: “Quiet Mr. Woods THE Community is Speaking…”‘
…
[Enter ICANN DHS Security Partners with GPS Cell Phone Records]
…
“We see here Mr. Woods you frequent Bars after GOLF…”
…
TW…’uh what is going on here?’
…
OZ: “Quiet Mr. Woods THE Community is Processing YOUR .GOLF Application…”‘
…
Isn’t it funny that the largest, most prominent and publicly active registrar and vertical online market provider, GODADDY, isn’t involved in the discussions, issues, presence, conferences etc… of the domain industry?
No, it’s not funny. It’s a perfect model for a company thinking it commands the market, and not bothering with “education” because the dumber the public, the more they’ll get excited about seeing Danica in a shower scene before they buy their next domain. Or… what?
I like to think optimistically, but so did all those investors in the stock market during GW Bush’s brilliant reign 2001-2009. The older I get, the more I get disgusted at the big G in those people who get into a position of power… The Big G – “GREED”. Better than sex for them…
On a side(but related)note, a nice example of the power of registrars is Godaddy’s setting of .co as the default extension for searches on its homepage, instead of .com.
Simply a move to make more money off the higher reg fees, or something else blowing in the wind?
Either way will be interesting to see the effect (if any) this will have on registrations.
Charles
I would assume and its only an assumption that .co is much more profitable for godaddy the a .com
The .com space is pretty competitive and their margin is assuming no upsells less than $2 a name and as low as under $1 a name.
.Co I would guess is has a $5-$10 profit margin for Godaddy
This completely supports my post back in March of this year, that Godaddy will make the most money off the new gTLD’s than anyone including the new registries in the space:
http://www.thedomains.com/2010/03/13/our-prediction-who-will-make-the-most-money-off-the-new-extensions-hands-down-godaddy-com/
@MHB
“Godaddy will make the most money off the new gTLD’s than anyone including the new registries”
===
With all due respect, I think you need to hire an “expert”.
@Chip The .eu is a strange ccTLD. It is meant to be a ccTLD for the European Union but the problem is that some of the strongest ccTLDs in the world are in the EU. When taken with the domain footprint of EU countries’ ccTLD and gTLD footprints, the .eu only accounts for between 5% and 20% of some of those country’s domain footprints. Businesses rarely use .eu as their primary brand in the way that European businesses might use .com or even .net. The shift towards ccTLDs and away from gTLDs is, perhaps, unstoppable. Most of the new gTLDs might turn out to be a pile of .asia and .tel TLDs rather than a having the volume of .eu or even .mobi.
@Jim The argument about domain extension length is irrelevant. The ccTLDs represent communities and countries. This gives them an element of personal identity in that people define themselves as Irish, American, Canadian, British, German etc. The ccTLDs reflect that in a way that generic TLDs do not. People, typically, are not interested in technological arguments when they are registering their domains. Their domain differentiate them and the ccTLD is a better way of doing so than using a .com domain.
@Michael,
Equal access to registrars has been “on the books” since the beginning, and it’s restated in the new guidebook section 1.2.1: “Registrar Cross-Ownership — ICANN- accredited registrars are eligible to apply for a gTLD. However, all gTLD registries are required to abide by a Code of Conduct addressing, inter alia, non-discriminatory access for all authorized registrars. ICANN reserves the right to refer any application to the appropriate competition authority relative to any cross-ownership issues.”
As to whether you can market your own TLD, I really think it depends on whether it’s being marketed to a market segment, and whether you (the TLD owner) know how to market to that segment — can you cut a deal with those who distribute to that segment, etc. If you’re a copy of .com, I agree with you. But I don’t think we’ll see very many copies of .com. To paraphrase Harry Truman, if you give someone a choice between something acting like a .com and a real .com, they’ll choose the real one every time.
Antony
“a front row seat to the BIGGEST game of chicken”
://atlarge-lists.icann.org/pipermail/gtld-wg/2010q4/000469.html
“While some potential applicants continue to hold out hope that the AG will
be finalized next month, the more likely reality is that the ICANN community
will have a front row seat to the BIGGEST game of chicken between the ICANN
Board and the GAC.”
“a front row seat to the BIGGEST game of chicken”
://www.ietf.org/mail-archive/web/dnsop/current/msg08854.html