Finally some good news coming out of the monthly jobless rate that was just released for November.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, a sign the job market is finally starting to recover.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 last month, slowing down from a downwardly revised 111,000 drop seen in October.
It was the best showing since December 2007, when payrolls rose by 120,000.
The unemployment rate, fell to 10% in November from 10.2%.
Economists had forecast the jobless rate would remain at October’s level of 10.2%.
The Fed projects the jobless rate to remain between 9.3% and 9.7% by this time next year, and to settle above 8% in 2011.
You have heard me chat about the overall economy and that IMHO the most important factor in recovery is job growth.
Good news.
The Canadian job market is recovering even faster.
Canada actually had job growth by adding 79,000 jobs in November.
The unemployment rate in Canada dipped to 8.5% from 8.6%
More good news
On the surface, it looks like good news.
However, what is not mentioned is that the people that have been unemployed for a long period time are dropped out of the numbers.
Plus, if the U.S. soldiers that were in the reserves returned to the U.S., many of them would return to their full time job which would cause some other employees to be layed off.
Until the banks return to lending to small businesses, U.S. unemployment is going to remain near the 10% category.
Do you really still believe this gov propaganda? You are a business visionary..come on, you know better than that..
The U.S. dollar was/is on the verge of collapse, every major financial institution went bankrupt..”Hope”..was just cover for more war..they needed a new face to fool people..
What you are reading from the gov about unemployment is fictitious with berjkanke up for renomination of looter in chief etc etc..the sheeple don’t know better but people of knowledge have to continue to wake up
Real
So when the numbers are bad they are accurate but when they are good its all made up?
No..they’ve always been skewed..check shadowstats.com. But now the ponzi of fractional reserve lending and 75 trillion in unfunded liabilities is unraveling. So, we were on the multidecade upswing of an increase in the fiat currency supply while the world was willing to accept dollars and treasuries that had value..
Lehman, Bear, AIG, WaMu, GM etc etc etc didn;t go bankrupt by accident..we are in the early innings unfortulately in my opinion..
youtube “Peter Schiff was right”
btw I hope I am wrong and still feel domains are a strong asset class no matter what because information is more important than ever, efficiency etc..global asset etc etc
like I said, i hope I am wrong and do not confuse my skepticism as I love this country dearly
Just some more manipulation of numbers. Not deliberate, it’s just a stupid way of measuring unemployment.
I would like to point you all to Mish for economic analysis on this news:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/jobs-contract-23rd-straight-month.html
To save you time, in particular look at the bottom of that post and this image:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/Sxkn8yQhpLI/AAAAAAAAHY4/qhvG4rfHnsw/s1600-h/table+A+2009-11.png
It shows that most of unemployment “loss” was really a shift from the labor force. There are other reasons.
I’ll quote the excerpt if I may:
“Unemployment dropped by .2% even though 11,000 jobs were lost and it should take at least 100,000 jobs just to keep up with demographics. Instead note the drop in the civilian labor force by 98,000.
Moreover, those “not in the labor force dropped by 291,000 constituting nearly all of the decline in unemployment.
Finally, in a typical recovery, the participation rate should go up not down. The reason is people hear there is a recovery, hear things are getting better, hear the talk about “green shoots” and think there might be a job if they go looking.”
Like my website says, Humans lie and so are NUMBERS!!
Numbers can be manipulated just like Humans.
Do you really believe in government stats? Look at the markets, they popped this morning but are in red now because economists already debunked the government stats.
This seems a little more accurate to me:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/12/04/real-unemployment-17-2-percent-mint/
I am surprised that with your legal mind you believe these stats mean that things are really getting better. Frankly I am surprised that you would trust government stats at all, I didn’t know people did that=)
Even if the stats were true, is it that shocking that unemployment numbers would go up 1/50th at the Christmas season? These jobs will be dropped December 26th, it is not even close to being permanent.
“So when the numbers are bad they are accurate but when they are good its all made up?”
Nope, when the government gives you information it is lying, regardless of it being good or bad.=)
I meant numbers would go down, not up.
January’s stats will be most important because there’s some degree of hiring going on now for the holiday season. They’re not high paying jobs, but they’re jobs nevertheless. Regardless of how bad it is now, I’m confident we’re not seeing the 1930’s revisited. This is more of a power shift than a super-recession. A lot of the old guard is tanking (print media, etc) while the new players are coming into their own (Internet, alternative energy, etc) and everything is shifting. If we keeps our wits about it, stay creative and don’t panic, we’ll all come out on top.
Solid words!!
Yes, no matter what happens in terms of financial severity predictions I agree that new media and alternative energies will flourish..they are efficient and don’t rely on the expansion or contraction of fiat money supply..they actually create tangible, consistent value for people and businesses.
once again, I hope no one confuses any criticisms of monetary policy with anything less than complete patriotism for this country.
I’m surprised the market didn’t tank today.
Buy the rumor and sell the fact, right?
This bull run (or is it a dead cat bounce/bear market rally?) has bought the rumor AND the news.
Interesting.
Maybe the big guys are too worried to sell because then everyone else will sell sell sell.
Things seem… fragile.
You have to check the revisions to these numbers & others when they come out to get closer to the “truth”. Of course, the revised numbers rarely make headlines and only those with a vested interest seem to follow them anyway.
Then again as previously stated, “when the government gives you information it is lying, regardless of it being good or bad.”
I patiently await when the 1st real domain name asset bubble is created and popped. I’m interested to see what form & fashion it arrives in and what the net will look like after its creative destruction.
It seems to me like the foundation is being laid with unlimited extensions. Or conversely, does limited extensions accelerate the bubble?
Wow, I no longer feel like the odd man out with my conspiracy theories and mistrust of government by ALL parties. As a kid we had bomb shelters and heard how evil the soviets were because they fed “propaganda” to their people and telling the truth is what set the US apart. But the President who said that also warned of the “military industrial complex” and with more contractors then soldiers(unreported and among those unfunded liabilities referred to earlier), even the army is putting Americans out of jobs.
@OF
You’re not alone my man…
I bought the whole thing hook, line and sinker for a couple decades..
Then I started connecting the dots..following money trails..i.e. (assume everyone isn’t ethical like I am, who would stand to benefit economically and why in xyz scenario and how would they go about proceding) and then everything made sense..
Just be a good person, be nimble and figure out a way to thrive in all environments..and look to friends, family, self and any higher power you believe in for identity..ignore figure heads and mainstream media and you will find a lot of answers
IMO, significant job creation will take longer than most people expect. The U.S. has a collection of fundamental economic problems and is not well positioned right now to compete & dominate in the global economy like was the case for decades.
The end result of this collapse and recession + the inability to domestically manufacture products affordably is going to shrink the middle class and expand the lower middle class. This phenomenon will empower socialist approaches, bring higher taxes, inflation, increased government handouts, possibly more bailouts (once the commercial real estate collapse unwinds), and work against small to mid-sized businesses who are the incubators of job growth and the real backbone of the economy.
Unions are highly damaging to U.S. company survival & profitability. Environmental fanatics also damage legislation that would create enormous jobs in the energy sector.
On the positive side, people are saving money again and being more cautious about carrying debt.
On the government job stats, it’s a somewhat distorted picture in that many of those newly employed are taking non-career, lower paying jobs, temp jobs and part-time work. There is no significant job creation, yet, that on scale matches the massive cumulative job losses.
Last point. Obama has done an extremely poor job of addressing unemployment and working with teams to devise new strategies for American job growth. His town hall discussion today was very welcomed, but so very late and sketchy at best. “Health care” and “Afghanistan” have provided a convenient distraction from the huge pink elephant sitting in the American living room. 90% of everything we hear from the administration should be focused on restoration of the American economy. There is a reason that has not been the case.
“On the positive side, people are saving money again and being more cautious about carrying debt.”
That is good for individuals but I think economists would argue those are not positive aspects of a growing economy.
70% of the US economy is consumer spending and debt buys stuff which creates jobs.
Imagine if everyone over saved and carried no debt. Great for the individual but this economy would be really bad off.
Rob…saving works, it just takes a few years to replace the available credit with actual cash then people can buy with cash instead of plastic.
The interest saved could also theoretically be spent too instead of disappearing as future banker bonuses.
This is what’s going to happen at some point:
The US will default on its debt or will devalue the $ 50-80% overnight.
Say goodbye to every emerging market (China, Brasil, India,….) because without the US consumer they are done.
For most normal US people this will be prety horrific too since many savers will be wiped out.
But afterwards, the US can rise from its ashes again and start all over.
Anyone having a problem with that? The nukes are set.
This event will mark the end of the credit bubble which was started by Nixon in 1971 when he closed the gold standard and declared the $ “good as gold”
If we get deflation (probability 5% – we will see the default on debt)
If we get high-hyperinflation (probability 95% we will see a devaluation of the $ overnight)
Actualy we are very close to high inflation – if not hyperinflation IMO. Thank God the banks aren’t lending yet as usual (they are still hoarding the cash themselves).
All the cash is in the system (credit) – all we need now is a match to light the fire.
Although the US is in bad shape, don’t bet against it. In the end, the $ is our money and the rest of the world’s problem.
C.
.
this is a comment for the newest post but the comments system seems not work
the BEST and MOST valuable .DO domain name surely is “SE.DO”
but, unfortunately, buy a simple .DO domain is not allowed now 🙂
.