Today Warren Buffett came out with his take on the economy:
“”The U.S. economy had fallen off a cliff”, but he went on to say it will “eventually recover, although a rebound could kindle inflation worse than that experienced in the late 1970s.””
“”The economy was mere hours away from collapse last September when credit markets seized up, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc went bankrupt and insurer American International Group Inc got its first bailout. “The world almost did come to a stop,” he said.
On CNBC today, Buffett said the country still faces an “economic Pearl Harbor,” experiencing a “close to the worst-case” scenario of falling business activity and rising unemployment.
On the recovery Buffett said that while the economy “can’t turn around on a dime,” he believes that “five years from now, I can guarantee you that the machine will be running fine.”
He added, “We do have the greatest economic machine that man has ever created.”
But he said an economic rebound could trigger higher inflation once demand rebounds. “In economics there is no free lunch,” he said. “We are going to attempt to have a lunch that to some extent we’re going to pay for later.”
With all the bailout money being spent, and the record increased proposed federal budget, it doesn’t take someone of Mr Buffett’ experience to see huge inflation coming on the horizon.
At this point over the next couple of years, I would advise to lock in any mortgages you have that are currently adjustable. Once inflation starts rolling and if Buffett is correct and inflation rates equal or exceed 1970’s rates, your mortgage could adjust easily to over 10% making your home unaffordable.
You should also consider not locking up your money in t-bills long term, as once inflation comes back so will interest rates, although I think we are at least a year away from this starting and possibly several years away.
Contrarian Profits says
Economic indicators show that inflation threats are right around the corner. Eric Fry of the Rude Awakening examines 6 ETFs and how to prepare for the “near-certain arrival of inflation.” He says now is the time to be wary of price increases and these ETFs act as an “insurance policy” to hedge against them.
http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/why-it%E2%80%99s-time-to-be-paranoid-about-inflation-risk/14566
andrew says
Also to protect against inflation consider buying Series I savings bonds or TIPS
Tim Davids says
I just can’t see inflation on the horizon…stores and businesses will be thrilled just to have a sale…raising prices would be a deal breaker most of the time
inflationguy says
the liquidity needs to be pumped into the economy.
when inflation arrives the federal reserve will slowly rise interest rates they were 21% under carter so this is no big deal.the fed could also buy dollars in the economy.
what we should be hearing from the sage of omaha is
1. how bh pulled out of providing insurance from the banking deposits when there was perceived risk bh immedately stopped insurance to the banks…so here is an investor who wants a guaranteed biz.
2.how buffet invested in aig which is now worth 50 cents on the dollar tell us more buffet.
3. does buffet now understand the online world more than 10 yrs later after every franchise newspaper in the country is now worthless?
online there is over 20 billion in annual advertising has buffets thinking caught up to the times? or is munger now the man.ben gramm theory is usless on the web.