To say the least 2008 has been an interesting year, in the domain world, and well beyond.
Here are out predictions for 2009, in no particular order:
1. The Kentucky Domain Seizure Order Will Be Reversed By The Kentucky Court of Appeals.
The Governor of Kentucky’s action in seizing 141 gambling domain names was unconstitutional from the start, and we expect early next year, that the Kentucky Court of Appeals will reverse the ruling. On the other hand, if the appellate court affirms the decision you better get your domains to an offshore registrar, quickly.
2. The New Domain Extensions (gTLD’s) Will Get Pushed Back.
After hundreds of comments poured in, and with mounting opposition from Fortune 500 companies, the US Department of Commerce and well, many in the domain community, expect that this whole process to get pushed back.
You will not see any of these new extensions live in 2009.
3. Someone Will Do A Deal With Yahoo.
After failed deals with Microsoft in 2008, someone is bound to do a deal with Yahoo. They have too much traffic, too big a channel for someone be it Microsoft, Time Warner’s AOL, News Corp, or a new player to get something done.
4. There Will Be Less Domain Parking Companies At The End Of 2009.
There are currently over 10 domain parking companies that basically resell the services of one of two companies. With shrinking margins and direct deals available to anyone with a domain though Google, do we really need that many companies? Probably not. With the duplication of fixed costs like physical address rent, employees, hardware to name a few, consolidation is inventible and will occur in 2009. Combine or die will be realty for many parking companies in 2009.
5. Trademark Infringement Will Become Criminal.
We all know about the Snowe Bill. We all know about CADNA and there ever growing membership ranks of companies who have individually more revenue than the domain industry combined.
We can only expect CADNA will press the new Congress to get a law passed which will make conduct currently subject to only civil fines and penalty, criminal, making domaining subject to jail time.
6. More Good Domains Will Become Available.
As domain holder’s revenue decreases, the number of good drop domains and generally available domains will increase; the strong will get stronger and the bottom feeders (trademarked domains) will be overwhelmed in legal fees, and registration and renewal fees. It’s the Lion King’s circle of life applied to domains.
7. The Days of Accountability & Transparency Arrives.
2008 was a turning point. It was the year that blogs called out way that the big boys do business.
Closed doors, doing things for your own benefit to the determinate of others in the cloak of darkness; those days are done.
From Wall Street to Main Street, we will not pause one second to ponder whether the questions can be asked, whether the dominate players can be questioned and whether we can demand fairness and accountability.
Yes, Yes and Yes.
8. ICANN Will Make Some Rules For Registrars and Dropped Domains.
Through the process of revising the contracts between ICANN and the registrars and the new gTLDs, I think ICANN got the message that the current situation that allows each registrar to do whatever they want with their customers expired domains, doesn’t work. Look for a proposal next year for a uniform set of rules rather than the wild, wild west situation we have now.
9. Domain Names Will Continue To Grow in Value.
Week after week, month after month, a tremendous volume of domain sales are reported by Ron Jackson at the DNJournal.com.
We also find many domain sales that go unreported in the normal channels.
When 2008 is done and the numbers tallied, we will see that one of the few bright spots, in this lousy economy, continues to be domain names. This will not get by the mainstream media for long, and even if it does, there is an unstoppable march of business to the net, each one needing a good domain to do business under. Domains will continue to gain value to end users.
10. The US Will Agree to Give Up Control Of ICANN.
The contract with the US Department of Commerce is up for renewal in 2009.
I expect that in the negotiations of the new contract the US will agree to give up control of ICANN to an international body such as the UN, within a specified time, within the next 5 years.
Ok, I’ve showed you mine and now you can show me yours.
What are your top predictions for 2009 in the domaining world?
VERY well thought out and great predictions. Make this post a “sticky” somewhere on the site.
I especially agree with #9. Small and medium businesses are looking to the Internet and domains for more customers.
Whypark will be bought by a parking company or even maybe a registrar. (I am not affiliated with this company other than the fact that I have 99 domains in their system.)
Godaddy will announce it’s IPO in 2009. I think they will start to get wall street respect as investors look around for profitable companies that aren’t laden with debt. Also, I agree that the Internet and domains will start to get some mainstreet attention. There are two domain conferences in California in April and those two could generate a lot of press for our industry.
Michael:
These are excellent predictions. The only one I would deem a wild card is #10. Both the DOC and DOJ oppose the way these vanity TLDs are being handled. If ICANN ignores them I would not consider US transfer of oversight a done deal.
Another awesome post.
I agree with everything.
I just think #5 will be impossible to enforce as there’s not enough jail space on the entire planet.
I predict A BIG portfolio will change owners…one we will all say “wow” about and it will renew interest among the domain community.
Well done Mike. Very well thought out and organised. I disagree on the CADNA prediction though–making trademark infringement a criminal offence will not happen. It won’t happen because no law will specifically call trademark infringement via a domain name criminal when non-domain related trademark infringement remains civil. And that is not going to change either. Also, given ICANN’s significant differences with DOC/DOJ with the new TLD proposal coupled with the inherent cyber threat the Internet economy is subject to, there is almost zero chance of surrendering control of any entity to the UN especially since there is no gain in doing so.
Great post Michael, thought provoking. I’m certainly partial to # 2, as I think it best demonstrates ICANN”s suspect credibility and competence. The new tld proposal was so poorly planned and conceived, it seriously calls into question ICANN’s abilities and perceived sense of mission. As an important policy making organization, they need to slow down and be more methodical and reflective before pushing forth key developments that could potentially harm numerous businesses and which could undermine the organization of the internet. ICANN clearly had/have dollar signs in their eyes.
My other fav from your list is # 7 pertaining to the need for transparency and accountability with the registrars … again, ironically, tying directly back to ICANN’s lack of appropriate commitments and focus. Registrars have been running wild and the trend has gotten worse, not better. 2009 MUST be the year that specific standards of conduct are defined for the registrar business. They’re about one step away from mafia status.
# 9, domains increasing in value? Total agreement here. The concentric circle widens with every passing year. What once was “insider secret” is moving toward common public knowledge.
There is actually at least 25 – 30 active domain parking companies today that partner up with Google/Yahoo.
Many will still be active with 2nd and third tier feeds even beyond Google and Yahoo control… It doesn’t cost anything to operate a parking service really and the profitability is quiet good… So heck, why not? 🙂
Some companies already have their own ad feeds and advertiser base, which are DomainSponsor (revenue.net) and Fabulous (roar.com) so they have already have their asses covered and more so than many others who may just one day wake up and have nowhere to monetize their traffic with.
Best,
Mike
Great post, and I also recommend making this a sticky or give it a separate sections, with maybe the top 10 predictions by your readers. This post will be revisited many times over.
I am doubtful about #7 that blogs and social critiques will have much impact on the ethics in the business world. It seems to me that human nature always finds a way to screw other people for private gain, even though it may sometimes be unintentional or at least not outright malicious. Scarcity of resources just makes it something that’s always there, like gravity.
As a newbie (less than 6 months into this domain thing) I am particularly looking forward to you predictions #2 and #6.
I’d also predict a dropoff in the number of active domainers. The many who are into domaining on the side will start concentrating on their main businesses as an efficiency measure in these troubled times.
Anu Siva
Great post Mike! Hundreds of thousands of highly-skilled retreched talent will be looking to the Web for opportunity, do you see this as an opportunity in 2009 to tap on the talents of these people to help add life to domains?
Three Words:
“Brick Exit Strategy”
SPOT on MIKE!
I think there shall be a reduction of parking companies.
I also believe that we may see more large portfolio holders sell off some of there domain investments for excellent returns as the markets begin to crash further people shall look for new investments and I believe going into domains shall be an area of great interest to many investors.
Regards,
Robbie
Good predictions here, i hope you’re right about most of them, specially about ICANN #10
It doesn’t make sense that one country controls the institution that basically rules the internet, the internet is global, is worldwide, one country can’t control it, can’t make political pressure on ICANN.
I think ICANN should be like most global ORG’s, go to Switzerland, ICANN in a neutral Country with total independence is essencial. We can’t be subjected to the laws of one specific country, no matter which country it is.
I fully agree with 9 out 10 predictions.
Helder:
Be careful what you wish for.
As a newbie, I am looking forward to 2009 and building hopefully a profitable business.
I also believe that the interent will grow like never before as the demise of traditional retailing continues.
Re:- 4. There Will Be Less Domain Parking Companies At The End Of 2009.
I think since Google wit their Adsense platform is the only major or ppular player providing advertisement to these 10 or more parking firms and the firms are acting as middlemen to the most enjoying hefty cut out of our revenues need to go..
Reckon, players like Google, Yahoo and few other will dominate domain parking industry in the coming year or so, for the years to follow.
Jay M
ParkingFirm.com
Information on Domain Parking industry.
Mark D. // Dec 29, 2008 at 3:57 am
Three Words:
“Brick Exit Strategy”
Totally agree….more domains will be developed .
Best Buy will go bankrupt but will retain the online stores.
More stores will go online and use the brick and mortar as some sort of “show” products avenues.