Verisign is reporting that the number of .Com domain names in the Domain Name Base have fallen below 128 Million.
Back in September of this year we reported the number of .com domain name had broken through the 128 million mark for the first time.
For the record, Verisign defines the Domain Name Base “is the active zone plus the number of domain names that are registered but not configured for use in the respective Top-Level Domain zone file plus the number of domain names that are in a client or server hold status.”
As Verisign has warned in earnings calls, there was a huge increase in .Com registrations in the 4th Quarter of last year especially numeric domain names and those domain name with random letters, that were registered mostly by those in China. Other domain name investors in the rest of the world also jumped into those type of domain registrations to sell to domain investors in China. The renewal rate on those domain name were expected to be lower than the normal .com registrations rate.
It one of the rare period of times that the number of .com domain registrations have actually dropped.
We will have better numbers when Verisign publishes their Domain Name Report for the 4Q of 2016 in 2017.
peak com
Then, “Peak” all domain names Paul. You can’t separate .com from the others. They are all part of a defined hierarchy. Expect a collapse in the domain space soon. There are too few reaons to own domain names now unless they are exceptional. There is no longer the foundation for direct navigation unless they are .premium com global or ccTLD/nTLD local. We are sitting on a bubble that really has less purpose in a search engine dominated web. Unless something fundamentally changes in the balance of how people navigate the web, the influx of new extensions will only suffice to help search engines more. The mechanisms to reach traffic were accessible for everyone for free with direct navigation and memorable addresses, where now, it is becoming too expensive to place for relevance in search for small and mid-sized businesses. Is short; search loves over-saturation.
Then, “Peak” all domain names Paul. You can’t separate .com from the others. They are all part of a defined hierarchy. Expect a collapse in the domain space soon. There are too few reaons to own domain names now unless they are exceptional. There is no longer the foundation for direct navigation unless they are .premium com global or ccTLD/nTLD local. We are sitting on a bubble that really has less purpose in a search engine dominated web. Unless something fundamentally changes in the balance of how people navigate the web, the influx of new extensions will only suffice to help search engines more. The mechanisms to reach traffic were accessible for everyone for free with direct navigation and memorable addresses, where now, it is becoming too expensive to place for relevance in search for small and mid-sized businesses. Is short; search loves over-saturation.
It’s called a “chips” hangover
.com growth has been declining for years. even before new TLDs. And over the resent few years, Verisign has lowered the price of new .com names to very low prices (including on that burst of names sold to Chinese registrants in Q4 2015) . Why has their growth declined? its because there are fewer and fewer great new names to be found in .com. The volume of names in new TLDs have been growing faster than .com. much faster. True, some of those new registrations are very low-cost (such as in .xyz), but its also true that names in Donut’s ~200 TLDs are at least 3x the cost of .com names (to the registry). Those are facts. True, the huge growth in new TLDs could be a bubble. I don’t think so, at least not in Donuts TLDs. Our renewal rate is increasing, as well as our usage rate. I think our both our renewal and usage rates will continue to increase.
regarding type-in traffic. i don’t think its correlated to the growth of the entire name space. I think the name space grows even if type-in does not. Why? because it has been.
I think domain names have a bright future. They are not going away anytime soon (in our lifetimes). They are not becoming less relevant, but more. People said, apps would take over websites. Didn’t happen. The average number of apps on a phone is about 30. People said domain names will fade to the background. Didn’t happen. The top mobile apps – Google search, facebook, twitter – are nothing but a curated list of domains/URLs! Without domain names all those business models don’t work. Why do you think Google applied for 100 TLDs? “people will put their ecommerce/company page on Facebook”. Didn’t happen. Facebook is not a sink *from* the namespace, its a source *to* domains
For these reasons, domain names are *more* relevant, not less, despite .com growth slowing (or declining). There is more choice/availability in new TLDs than in .com. There is no denying that. Why do you think Verisign is trying to by .web for $135M? Its not because they think the domain industry total growth is the same as .com (near-zero to negative). The overall growth of the domain name market is faster than .com, and that growth is being captured by new TLDs. That’s not com-bashing or industry-bashing, that is a fact. My message is pro-industry, pro-growth, pro-domains. We are nowhere close to the peak of all domains.
I enjoyed this exchange…. I’ll be doing much more speaking/writing on these topics in 2017 than I’ve done in the past.